What the hell is Kim Jong Il Playing At?

[RasFarengi]

N. Korea threatens tactical nukes

(CNN) --In the latest rhetorical clash in a long running nuclear standoff between North Korea and the U.S., Pyongyang has threatened to respond "in kind" should Washington deploy new high-tech weapons to South Korea.

"The DPRK [North Korea] will consider the ultra-modern weapons the new conservatives of the U.S. try to use as tactical nuclear weapons, which compels the DPRK to make as powerful weapons as them," read a statement issued in on Thursday by Pyongyang to mark the 50th anniversary on July 27 of the truce to end Korean War fighting.

North Korea also accused the United States of "trying to complicate the nuclear issue" by avoiding bilateral talks.

The United States has said it is considering deploying more modern weapons systems to South Korea, where it has based 37,000 troops to augment the South Korean military.

North Korea has said it possesses nuclear weapons and is building more but the United States has been unable to confirm this claim.

The statement was issued shortly after a 15-minute phone call between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and U.S. President George W. Bush.

The two leaders agreed to keep pushing for multilateral talks to deal with the North's nuclear ambitions.

Bush told Roh he hopes to include Seoul officials in the next round of talks, according to the White House.

The United States has maintained that multilateral discussions, involving North Korea's neighbors Japan and China, as well as the South, were needed to resolve the crisis, which began last October.

There has been only one round of multilateral talks -- with the United States, North Korea and China in April -- in the effort to stop Pyongyang from ramping up its nuclear program.

But rumors of a new round of talks have followed a Chinese diplomatic mission to Pyongyang earlier this month.

Bush hopes Japan will also be involved in future discussions, White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters

Asked if he thought North Korea would agree to expanded talks, McClellan said the White House was "working on it."

North Korea has previously demanded face-to-face talks with Washington and a non-aggression treaty with the U.S. as a condition for any moves to back down from its nuclear weapons development program.

But despite the bluster, which has shifted another gear ahead of the Korean War armistice anniversary, there are indications Pyongyang might be readying to accept a Chinese compromise and agree to another round of multilateral talks.

Tensions have escalated between North Korea and the United States in recent months.

A North Korean diplomat told a state department official earlier this month the nation had finished reprocessing fuel rods at plant at Yongbyon.

There have also been reports that North Korea has a second nuclear plant that was unknown to Western observers. (Full story)

The U.S. has refused overtures from Pyongyang for a signed non-aggression pact in return for concessions on its nuclear program.

Bush officials, however, say they are making it clear the United States wants to settle the issue peacefully and diplomatically.

-- CNN White House Correspondent Dana Bash contributed to this report.


 

 


 
Find this article at:
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/...orea/index.html 

[Emperor_Mike]

Diplomatic blackmail, that's what that annoyingly coy little man in Pyongyang is getting at. He's frayed more than a couple of nerves in Washington and Beijing and it's only a matter of time before he has to act on these threats of his. Kim Jong Il is like Nikita Khrushchev and Kaiser Wilhelm I, all talk, some close sabre-rattling calls, but in the end very little action.

At least one can hope that there will be very little action.

[SunWuKong]

<!--QuoteBegin-Emperor_Mike+Jul 25 2003, 01:19 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Emperor_Mike @ Jul 25 2003, 01:19 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Diplomatic blackmail, that's what that annoyingly coy little man in Pyongyang is getting at. He's frayed more than a couple of nerves in Washington and Beijing and it's only a matter of time before he has to act on these threats of his. Kim Jong Il is like Nikita Krushchev and Kaiser Wilhelm I, all talk, some close sabre-rattling calls, but in the end very little action.

At least one can hope that there will be very little action. [/b][/quote]
i'm not so sure he'd really act on these threats though. he's not stupid. if he acts on them, he really has nothing left, and (i hope) he knows fully well that if the US really wanted to, it can take over North Korea. might be difficult if it's purely a land battle. but the US Navy has ships the size of small cities.

[RasFarengi]

Sometimes I wonder is Kim Jong Il really in control.&nbsp; I think this whole thing is to prop up his regime...and everyone knows he gives his army food and money while other people are starving in his country...and I think that is primarily to keep them in line, with a system of bribes, because I know that more than once, someone has been tempted (especially with outside persuasion from other countries) to put a bullet in his head.

Kim is desperate for hard cash.&nbsp; He used to get it through arms sells and illegal drugs.&nbsp; Well the Japanese are cracking down on the illegal drug shipments into Japan.&nbsp; America is cracking down on his arms transfers, because he is transferring to countries we don't like (America is the biggest arms dealer in the world by the way, by far)...so we cut off his money, he still gets money from South Korea, he was getting a little from the rich Koreans that live in Japan, but the Japanese government just cut down on that.

Hmmm....so what does he think he can get?

I don't think there would be a war on the Korean Peninsula because if North Korea did anything truly provocative, North Korea would be turned into a parking lot for East Asia, but this would also result in the destruction of most of South Korea and more than likely part of Japan. Human cost would be high, and this would kill the world economy, investors would pull out of that region quick, people would make a "run&nbsp; on the banks..."

Another scenario is that North Korea collapses.&nbsp; China and South Korea do not want that scenario, the number of refugees would be enormous and South Korea is in no position to absorb North Korea at the present time.&nbsp;&nbsp; It is not as rich as West Germany was in 1989, and North Korea is poorer than many West African countries, you can't even compare it to East Germany in 1989...that would kill Korea financially for years.&nbsp; I also don' think China wants another large American friendly state off their border, especially so close to the "China Proper Heart Land.."&nbsp; Also if N.Korea collapses what will become of their nuclear arsenal?

Best case is to kill Kim Jong Il, put in some American friendly general(dictator) who is open to reform, and try to prevent North Korea from imploding with a lot of aid.&nbsp; That is how I see it anyway.&nbsp;&nbsp; IN that situation I can see North Korea, Japan, and China fighting tooth and nail trying to interfere in the slow Korean reunification process, but that is better than war.


Korea is funny like that, due to geography...many young people in Korea think that the answer to all the problems is for the Americans to leave (the older ones know better and don't even want America to move troops from the DMZ)...but even if all Americans leave tomorrow and Korea magically reunified, you can bet that China and Japan will never leave them alone.&nbsp; They will be someone's "little brother" question is whose...

[Emperor_Mike]

<!--QuoteBegin-SunWuKung+Jul 25 2003, 09:23 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (SunWuKung @ Jul 25 2003, 09:23 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> <!--QuoteBegin-Emperor_Mike+Jul 25 2003, 01:19 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Emperor_Mike @ Jul 25 2003, 01:19 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Diplomatic blackmail, that's what that annoyingly coy little man in Pyongyang is getting at. He's frayed more than a couple of nerves in Washington and Beijing and it's only a matter of time before he has to act on these threats of his. Kim Jong Il is like Nikita Khrushchev and Kaiser Wilhelm I, all talk, some close sabre-rattling calls, but in the end very little action.

At least one can hope that there will be very little action. [/b][/quote]
i'm not so sure he'd really act on these threats though. he's not stupid. if he acts on them, he really has nothing left, and (i hope) he knows fully well that if the US really wanted to, it can take over North Korea. might be difficult if it's purely a land battle. but the US Navy has ships the size of small cities. [/b][/quote]
Yes, he'll probably back down, hence my comparison of him against Khrushchev and Wilhelm I. Then again, if he's as unbalanced as the media makes him out to be, then there's something else to think about, yes? You are correct, of course, in saying that no sane person would go to war under these set of circumstances. I'm betting that he's relying on Chinese or South Korean sentiment to force the issue, but it's a big gamble if you ask me.

[SunWuKong]

i think the Chinese government pretty much wants the status quo on the Korean reunification process.&nbsp; they don't want North Korea to go capitalistic and open up its borders because it'll pull a lot of foreign investment money away from China.

[Emperor_Mike]

<!--QuoteBegin-RasFarengi+Jul 25 2003, 09:25 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (RasFarengi @ Jul 25 2003, 09:25 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Sometimes I wonder is Kim Jong Il really in control. I think this whole thing is to prop up his regime...and everyone knows he gives his army food and money while other people are starving in his country...and I think that is primarily to keep them in line, with a system of bribes, because I know that more than once, someone has been tempted (especially with outside persuasion from other countries) to put a bullet in his head.

Kim is desperate for hard cash. He used to get it through arms sells and illegal drugs. Well the Japanese are cracking down on the illegal drug shipments into Japan. America is cracking down on his arms transfers, because he is transferring to countries we don't like (America is the biggest arms dealer in the world by the way, by far)...so we cut off his money, he still gets money from South Korea, he was getting a little from the rich Koreans that live in Japan, but the Japanese government just cut down on that.

Hmmm....so what does he think he can get?

I don't think there would be a war on the Korean Peninsula because if North Korea did anything truly provocative, North Korea would be turned into a parking lot for East Asia, but this would also result in the destruction of most of South Korea and more than likely part of Japan. Human cost would be high, and this would kill the world economy, investors would pull out of that region quick, people would make a "run on the banks..."

Another scenario is that North Korea collapses. China and South Korea do not want that scenario, the number of refugees would be enormous and South Korea is in no position to absorb North Korea at the present time. It is not as rich as West Germany was in 1989, and North Korea is poorer than many West African countries, you can't even compare it to East Germany in 1989...that would kill Korea financially for years. I also don' think China wants another large American friendly state off their border, especially so close to the "China Proper Heart Land.." Also if N.Korea collapses what will become of their nuclear arsenal?

Best case is to kill Kim Jong Il, put in some American friendly general(dictator) who is open to reform, and try to prevent North Korea from imploding with a lot of aid. That is how I see it anyway. IN that situation I can see North Korea, Japan, and China fighting tooth and nail trying to interfere in the slow Korean reunification process, but that is better than war.


Korea is funny like that, due to geography...many young people in Korea think that the answer to all the problems is for the Americans to leave (the older ones know better and don't even want America to move troops from the DMZ)...but even if all Americans leave tomorrow and Korea magically reunified, you can bet that China and Japan will never leave them alone. They will be someone's "little brother" question is whose... [/b][/quote]
A good analysis for the most part, but I have to disagree with your assessment of a unified Korea being someone's vassal (or something to that effect.) The world no longer operates in this particular manner and any attempt by Japan or China to reassert influence over the peninsula will invariably result in mass public outcry. We're not dealing with traditional spheres of influence, protectorates and tributary states any more, you know.

A North Korea collapse will happen, it's only a question of when this will occur. When it happens, there will be a vacuum that needs to be filled, just like the collapse of Germany in the Second World War created a vacuum in Central Europe that was later filled by Britain, France, the United States and the Soviet Union. I envisage a similar arrangement whereby China and South Korea (though not Japan for obvious reasons) would work to ensure a gradual rebuilding of the impoverished north. The plan would likely call for an immediate withdrawal of American troops from Korea, something Washington may or may not comply with.

Taking into consideration the practise of neo-Realpolitik, the United States would probably balk at the prospect of an increase in Chinese influence in the Far East...

...

It's a long analysis. I did one for the Durham Foreign Affairs Society a year back when a similar issue arose and I'll post my notes later on if I can find it. Anyway, I need to go teach my class now.

[Emperor_Mike]

<!--QuoteBegin-SunWuKung+Jul 25 2003, 09:41 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (SunWuKung @ Jul 25 2003, 09:41 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> i think the Chinese government pretty much wants the status quo on the Korean reunification process. they don't want North Korea to go capitalistic and open up its borders because it'll pull a lot of foreign investment money away from China. [/b][/quote]
National self interests are the ways of the Grand Game of Diplomacy, so your assessment is a good one. Though, I don't think that a unified capitalistic Korea possesses the capacity to put a large dent in China's foreign investment policies and reciprocal actions in kind.

[SunWuKong]

<!--QuoteBegin-Emperor_Mike+Jul 25 2003, 01:44 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Emperor_Mike @ Jul 25 2003, 01:44 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> A North Korea collapse will happen, it's only a question of when this will occur. [/b][/quote]
well i don't know about that for certain.&nbsp; from reading about the Great Leap and the Cultural Revolution periods in China, you'd think that China would have collapsed, too.&nbsp; i think there can still be reform in North Korea.&nbsp; but most probably not while Kim Il Jong is in charge.

[SunWuKong]

<!--QuoteBegin-Emperor_Mike+Jul 25 2003, 01:46 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Emperor_Mike @ Jul 25 2003, 01:46 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> National self interests are the ways of the Grand Game of Diplomacy, so your assessment is a good one. Though, I don't think that a unified capitalistic Korea possesses the capacity to put a large dent in China's foreign investment policies and reciprocal actions in kind. [/b][/quote]
i guess just how much it would drain foreign money away from China is relative, but for certain, South Korean investment money would start to go mostly to North Korea, and i imagine a sizeable amount from Japan would also go to North Korea.&nbsp; those two sources themselves comprise of a fairly large chunk.&nbsp; one of the main purposes of investing in China is so that companies can directly access the Chinese market.&nbsp; well, North Korea is just a short train hop to China, so it's very likely that countries would build manufacturing plants in North Korea instead, and then sell the products to the Chinese market just right across the border.

[Emperor_Mike]

<!--QuoteBegin-SunWuKung+Jul 25 2003, 09:50 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (SunWuKung @ Jul 25 2003, 09:50 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> well i don't know about that for certain. from reading about the Great Leap and the Cultural Revolution periods in China, you'd think that China would have collapsed, too. i think there can still be reform in North Korea. but most probably not while Kim Il Jong is in charge. [/b][/quote]
China was able to absorb the losses better, I think and had greater resources at its disposal. Then there was the question of the Soviet Union, which plays a very role in the continued survival of the PRC. I'm not sure if Beijing is playing a role similar to Moscow with regard to Pyongyang today, but on the offchance that China is supporting the North in an effort to create a similar system of governance (i.e strict political control combined with a quasi-free market economy) then collapse may be averted. It's all very hypothetical, of course. We'll just have to wait and see, yes?

[Emperor_Mike]

<!--QuoteBegin-SunWuKung+Jul 25 2003, 09:56 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (SunWuKung @ Jul 25 2003, 09:56 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> i guess just how much it would drain foreign money away from China is relative, but for certain, South Korean investment money would start to go mostly to North Korea, and i imagine a sizeable amount from Japan would also go to North Korea. those two sources themselves comprise of a fairly large chunk. one of the main purposes of investing in China is so that companies can directly access the Chinese market. well, North Korea is just a short train hop to China, so it's very likely that countries would build manufacturing plants in North Korea instead, and then sell the products to the Chinese market just right across the border. [/b][/quote]
I'm guessing that the most attractive reason for investing in China are the growing markets and infrastructure. If Beijing is met with the prospect of losing out to foreign imports manufactured in North Korea and then sold to China, I'm sure the PRC would find some Machiavellian way to "raise" tariffs of some sort (contrary to the WTO rules.) I'm not an economist, of course, so I'm basically wandering around in the dark with my simple economic theories, so to speak. ;)

[SunWuKong]

<!--QuoteBegin-Emperor_Mike+Jul 25 2003, 01:56 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Emperor_Mike @ Jul 25 2003, 01:56 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> China was able to absorb the losses better, I think and had greater resources at its disposal. Then there was the question of the Soviet Union, which plays a very role in the continued survival of the PRC. I'm not sure if Beijing is playing a role similar to Moscow with regard to Pyongyang today, but on the offchance that China is supporting the North in an effort to create a similar system of governance (i.e strict political control combined with a quasi-free market economy) then collapse may be averted. It's all very hypothetical, of course. We'll just have to wait and see, yes? [/b][/quote]
actually, the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) hated the Soviets behind doors, but had appeared to be in support of them in the public, to show the world a united Communist front.&nbsp;

pre-1949, before the CCP finally achieved control of China, firstly it was the Soviets' Comintern that kept urging the CCP to ally with the KMT (Kuomintang - the Nationalists).&nbsp; this was fine to fight the Japanese invasion together.&nbsp; but after the Japanese was driven out, the KMT betrayed the CCP and slaughtered many of its numbers in a surprise attack.&nbsp; the CCP already had misgivings about keeping itself allied to the KMT, and the Comintern was blamed for the consequences of KMT's betrayal.&nbsp; then it was also the Comintern that urged the CCP to fight the revolution in the urban areas (per Leninist doctrine).&nbsp; the CCP met with much failure in doing this.&nbsp; the situation was just different for Russia's revolution and China's revolution.&nbsp; Lenin was able to usurp the Russian army in the revolution, but the CCP and the PLA (People's Liberation Army) were literally just a bunch of rag-tag soldiers with a lot of ideologies.&nbsp; it was Mao who finally turned the tide when he started running his guerrilla campaigns, using peasant soldiers and fighting in the rural areas.&nbsp; after that, the CCP abandoned Soviet methodology of revolution all together, and obviously the Soviets did not look kindly to that.&nbsp; since then, the CCP have had a difficult relationship with the Soviets.&nbsp; and things got even worse when, during the Cold War, the US invited China to normalise relations in order to counter Soviet influence (of course, that was not the publicised reason), and China accepted the the invitation with opened arms!

so the CCP did not actually have much help from the Soviets.&nbsp; the only reason Mao publically stood by the Soviets' side during those early years of the PRC was to give the young CCP an appearance of legitimacy to the global community for the right to rule China.&nbsp; and i don't think Deng Xiaoping cared too much about what the Soviets thought when he threw opened China's doors and proclaimed "to make money is glorious."

regarding whether or not China would support a North Korean effort to reform, i think China would support anything that would lesson a nuclear threat in the North Korean region.&nbsp; i know that China supports the economic reforms that are taking place in Vietnam right now, but Vietnam is going about them very slowly, because it is emulating what China is doing and it wants to see if China is going to screw it all up first.&nbsp; i think China would support a slow process of economic reform in North Korea that emulates the Chinese model, just like what's happening in Vietnam.

[SunWuKong]

<!--QuoteBegin-Emperor_Mike+Jul 25 2003, 02:00 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Emperor_Mike @ Jul 25 2003, 02:00 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> I'm guessing that the most attractive reason for investing in China are the growing markets and infrastructure. If Beijing is met with the prospect of losing out to foreign imports manufactured in North Korea and then sold to China, I'm sure the PRC would find some Machiavellian way to "raise" tariffs of some sort (contrary to the WTO rules.) I'm not an economist, of course, so I'm basically wandering around in the dark with my simple economic theories, so to speak. ;) [/b][/quote]
well, since North Korea is not part of the WTO, i think it can there are no rules concerning it raising tariffs on North Korean imports.&nbsp; somebody correct me if i'm wrong.

but anyway, yeah, it's all speculation about what would happen if North Korea turned capitalistic overnight.

[VV o n g B a]

<!--QuoteBegin-Emperor_Mike+Jul 25 2003, 12:56 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Emperor_Mike @ Jul 25 2003, 12:56 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> China was able to absorb the losses better, I think and had greater resources at its disposal. Then there was the question of the Soviet Union, which plays a very role in the continued survival of the PRC. I'm not sure if Beijing is playing a role similar to Moscow with regard to Pyongyang today, but on the offchance that China is supporting the North in an effort to create a similar system of governance (i.e strict political control combined with a quasi-free market economy) then collapse may be averted. It's all very hypothetical, of course. We'll just have to wait and see, yes? [/b][/quote]
actually in the 50s-60s, krushchev and mao started having spats over policy (krushchev thought the glf was stupid as such) and krushchev went so far as to pull all the 10k or so soviet technicians that were in china out.&nbsp; so during china's most insane moments, there was no outside power that lent a hand in any meaningful fashion.