Elections in Iraq

[Faithless]

Sounds like, come hell-or-high-water, the elections will happen. Even with the threat of insurgent blood bath?

Anyway, interesting article from the International Herald Tribune (which is a great news resource with one of the hardest web pages to copy from).

It's funny that we have our wants/not wants out of the Iraqi government. One of those not wants -- a theocratic state.

The irony is that one could argue that is what we currently have within our house/senate/white houlse.

sign of hope in Iraq

There is more than one audience for recent declarations from the United Iraqi Alliance - the electoral slate associated with the Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - rejecting the model of clerical rule in Iraq. A statement on Monday from a coalition spokesman saying that a religious form of government is not an aim of the alliance "and will not be in the future" was clearly intended for American ears. U.S. authorities have made it plain that they do not want to see either a clerical regime on the Iranian model or an Iraqi government under Iranian influence to emerge from the elections, scheduled for Sunday.
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But the disavowal of theocratic ambitions would be a political necessity in any case. Within the Iraqi electorate there are key constituencies, comprising a large majority, that also need to be assured that if they vote for the alliance list with its major Shiite parties, they will not be voting for the creation of a theocratic state in thrall to Tehran.
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Despite the dangers looming over the election and its aftermath, this Iraqi consensus about the need to avoid a government of religious authorities is a good thing. It is a positive sign that various groupings in Iraq's fragmented society - each for its own reasons - would like to establish an Iraqi version of what Western societies regard as the separation of church and state. No less positive is the spectacle of Iraqi politicians eager for office doing what must be done to mold their platforms to the voters' wishes.
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As it is, candidates and voters alike will have to withstand lethal attacks from Baathist and Islamist counterrevolutionaries to forge the legitimacy that can only come from an election. Then members of the national assembly will have to write a constitution that preserves the political and territorial unity of Iraq, a process that will require them to balance justified Kurdish demands for regional autonomy against Arab attachment to a strong central government. And those representatives will also have to find a way to balance Iraqis' yearning for security against the widespread longing to be rid of foreign forces in Iraq's cities and towns.
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There would be little chance of clearing any of these hurdles if Iraq's politicians and political parties were not prepared to practice the call-and-response habits of democracy. So it is a hopeful sign that aspiring politicians from disparate factions have been able to hear and respond to a common wish among Iraqis to be governed by secular leaders and to avoid a civil war.
.There is more than one audience for recent declarations from the United Iraqi Alliance - the electoral slate associated with the Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - rejecting the model of clerical rule in Iraq. A statement on Monday from a coalition spokesman saying that a religious form of government is not an aim of the alliance "and will not be in the future" was clearly intended for American ears. U.S. authorities have made it plain that they do not want to see either a clerical regime on the Iranian model or an Iraqi government under Iranian influence to emerge from the elections, scheduled for Sunday.
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But the disavowal of theocratic ambitions would be a political necessity in any case. Within the Iraqi electorate there are key constituencies, comprising a large majority, that also need to be assured that if they vote for the alliance list with its major Shiite parties, they will not be voting for the creation of a theocratic state in thrall to Tehran.
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What will the elections mean for Iraq’s future?

By Simon Kitchen
Published: January 25 2005 16:05 | Last updated: January 25 2005 16:05

Elections for a new Iraqi national assembly are likely to go ahead in most of the country on 30 January, although observers continue to warn that an unbalanced result will lead to questions over the assembly's legitimacy.

The 275 members of the assembly will be drawn from national election lists drawn up by major political factions. This system will guarantee seats for prominent Iraqis but is likely to skew the assembly in favor of Iraqi Kurds, who are voting in Iraq's most secure region.
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Alongside demographics and political weight, religious law and oil are the two other major issues the national assembly must tackle. The interim constitution naturally mentions Sharia - Islamic law derived from the Quran and other sources - as one of sources of Iraqi law. However, imposing the Shia interpretation of Sharia, known as the Jaafari school, would alienate Sunni Iraqis as well as Christians and other sects. Moreover, some Iraqis notably the Communists, who have a strong Shia following - would like Sharia's application to be limited to family law, while others are advocating something closer to a clerical regime.

Iraq's oil fields are in the northern and southern thirds of the country, areas that the Kurds and Shia Arabs respectively regard as their spheres of influence. The Kurds were awarded 17 per cent of Iraq's oil revenue under the UN oil-for-food program, and Kurdish leaders are arguing that they should receive 20 per cent of total national revenues under new arrangements. The Kurds would also like control over oilfields in Kirkuk. Both ideas are strongly resisted by Iraq's oil ministry, as well as by Allawi's government, which recognizes that dividing oil revenues would weaken the central government in Baghdad. Oil is thus a critical issue for the authors of the constitution.

The fact remains that the Iraqi central government is weak, and it will be unable to assert its authority over the entire country for some time to come. The national armed forces cannot effectively end the insurgency, while the Allawi government is weakened by its association with US forces. Violence, particularly in Sunni areas, is likely to continue after the election, and it is likely that Iraq will be become a training ground for Islamists who will fight in future conflicts outside Iraq. Nevertheless, efforts by the insurgents to provoke a sectarian or ethnic conflict have so far failed, in spite of continuing attacks on Shia leaders and inflammatory comments from religious leaders. Iraq's greatest challenge over the next six months will be to write a constitution that preserves the fragile sense of national unity that the country retains.

[Faithless]

What gets me is this comment --
I have lived all my life for this moment, to see Iraqi free," said Kenaya, his cheeks flushing with excitement. "We have freedom in our teeth and we're not letting it go."

And the thing that bugs me is whether there's an expectation that they're going to have an open government life we have here.

I believe Iraq's government will end up no better than Iran's. Theocratic. Is a theocratic style of government better than no government at all? Not if there's no hope of changing it.

Iraqi Expats Unlikely to Sway Election

Posted: Wednesday January 26,2005 - 12:20:10 pm

By GILLIAN FLACCUS, Associated Press Writer
EL CAJON, Calif. - By the time Nick Kenaya fled Iraq , he had been tortured, blacklisted and threatened with execution for refusing to swear allegiance to Saddam Hussein 's Baath Party.

Latest headlines: · Bush confident Iraqi elections will be "grand moment" AFP - 5 minutes ago · Iraqi Expats Unlikely to Sway Election AP - 8 minutes ago · Turkey Warns Kurds About Kirkuk Control AP - 10 minutes ago Special Coverage

Now, after more than 20 years of exile in this San Diego suburb, Kenaya will help decide who leads his homeland when he casts an absentee ballot this weekend in Iraq's historic election.

Kenaya's enthusiasm for an act he sees as a moral duty is not diminished by the fact that only a small fraction of America's Iraqi expatriates have registered, and their votes are unlikely to make much difference.

Only 25,946, or 11 percent, of the estimated 240,000 eligible Iraqi-Americans registered at the polling stations in five U.S. cities to take part in an election in which a projected 7 million ballots will be cast.

"It's not a disappointment to me. It's a first step," said Kenaya, 61, a member of Iraq's Chaldean Christian minority. "And with the first step, it is always difficult to make a big difference."

All told, there are 1.2 million eligible expatriate Iraqis in 14 countries. Less than one-quarter had registered by Tuesday's deadline.

The low numbers are attributed to shortage of registration and polling places, a disorganized election effort, conflicts with a key Islamic holiday and fears of violence.

Those who do vote will pick a 275-member assembly, which over the next year will draft a constitution and elect a president. Voters will choose from one of 111 slates of candidates, with the number of seats each slate gets determined by its share of the vote. Inside Iraq, the vote is Sunday; elsewhere, it runs Friday through Sunday.

The political clout of overseas Iraqis would have been limited even in the best-case scenario. Like Iraq itself, the expatriate community is deeply divided along ethnic and religious lines, with Kurds, Chaldeans, Assyrians and Shiites likely to cast their votes for different slates, said Juan Cole, a professor of Middle Eastern history at the University of Michigan.

"The most they could do is slightly amplify the parties that will already be voted for," Cole said.

Many Iraqi expatriates say that a bungled, rushed election effort further dimmed hopes of gaining a few extra seats for their favored parties.

Many would-be voters had to travel hundreds of miles to register in person at one of 74 stations in 14 nations. Across the entire United States, there were only seven registration locations, in Los Angeles, Detroit, Chicago, Nashville, Tenn., and Washington, D.C. And voters will then have to return to those locations this weekend to cast their ballots.

Moreover, the weeklong registration period — which was extended twice to try to boost turnout — conflicted with the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, or Feast of Sacrifice, which coincides with the yearly pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia.

"We have a religious order to vote and we cannot afford not to vote," said Husham Al-Husainy, director of the Karbalaa Islamic Center in Dearborn, Mich., referring to an order from Iraq's top Shiite cleric. "But the way they opened the centers prevented tens of thousands of Iraqis from reaching them."

Fears of violence at the polling places also may have played a role. In Chicago, organizers moved their offices because of security concerns. In Nashville, organizers decided to hold registration in heated outdoor tents instead of in a community center or police building.

The low turnout was particularly frustrating for Chaldeans, who make up about 2 percent of the Iraqi population. Members of the Christian minority are afraid to vote in Iraq and were relying on their overseas counterparts to bolster their numbers, said Hany Choulagh, vice chairman of the Chaldean Federation of America in Southfield, Mich.

"Imagine if we had the right locations — 70,000 or 80,000 people would vote," Choulagh said. "That would mean we could have at least six or seven representatives elected, but unfortunately it hasn't been done the right way."

The Geneva-based International Organization of Migration, which is handling the overseas vote, has said that while its efforts have not been perfect, hundreds of thousands of expatriates will have some say in Iraq's future.

Kenaya, who fled Iraq rather than renounce his Christian beliefs, has pinned his hopes on the Nation Union Party, a secular, multiparty coalition that includes 91 women and an expert on constitutional law.

"I have lived all my life for this moment, to see Iraqi free," said Kenaya, his cheeks flushing with excitement. "We have freedom in our teeth and we're not letting it go."

On the Net:

http://www.iraqocv.org

[ism]

It's a win-win situation for Bush. We came, we had elections, see ya! If it doesn't work out too well, it's due to the "democracy-hating terrorists." Ever since the elections started looking bleak, the Bush machine has been spinning any failure that way (notice the Inauguration Address: "Liberty will come to those who love it.").

Good thing the Iraqi Constitution gives more rights to its citizens that the U.S. Constitution does (explicit Right to Privacy, Education, and Health Care): http://www.command-post.org/2_archives/010794.html

And Iraq will be a theocratic state no matter what:

Article 7.

A) Islam is the official religion of the State and is to be considered a source of legislation. No law that contradicts the universally agreed tenets of Islam, the principles of democracy, or the rights cited in Chapter Two of this Law may be enacted during the transitional period. This Law respects the Islamic identity of the majority of the Iraqi people and guarantees the full religious rights of all individuals to freedom of religious belief and practice.

Of course, the way I'm reading this, is saying that Iraq's common law is Islamic common law, the natural common law borne of that culture. Gotta have some basis in law, and that's the best choice.

[Yeahman]

Ah, let the spinning begin!

Originally Posted by ChottoMatte

Is a theocratic style of government better than no government at all?

Infinitely so. Let the people choose for God's sake!
The difference with Iran is that most Iranians wanted change. They wanted less theocracy and are being prevented.
If the laws of Iraq turn out to be theocratic, let it be. So long as a totalitarian government isn't established, the tide of public opinion can always change it later.
Why do you want to impose American secularism on the Iraqis? Damn you American imperialists!

[Faithless]

Originally Posted by ye110man

Ah, let the spinning begin!

Infinitely so. Let the people choose for God's sake!

In a way, they will.

Gosh, the elections are this Sunday? In one sense there is the bitching about this war and all the things that have gone on with it, but then there is the reality of what lies ahead. And it appears the elections will go in some form.

Still will be damned to give Bush any props for the forthcoming election, since our Iraq policy seems to have "backed into" it.

But there is this curiosity of what all the elections will really mean. Will there really be a true democracy? Or just a ruling theocracy? Can an elected government withstand continuing insurgency? It looks like we'll still be there after the elections too -- when in the hell will we be able to withdraw?

What would make Iraq election a success? Big turnout

By Donna Cassata, Associated Press, 1/28/2005 14:03

WASHINGTON (AP) In terms familiar to U.S. voters, it's all about turnout in the Iraqi elections.

Fourteen million Iraqis are eligible to vote, and their presence at the polls Sunday in a nation ridden by violence would be a welcome sight for a Bush administration determined to spread democracy in the Middle East and allay American fears about the war's rising toll.

While the administration is making no predictions on turnout, it has polled on the contest just like a U.S. political campaign.

In two recent State Department surveys, including one conducted Jan. 10-19, more than 80 percent of Iraq's Shiite population said it was ''very likely'' they would vote, but just 30 percent or so of the Sunnis said the same, according to a department official. By comparison, turnout in last November's U.S. presidential election was 60.7 percent.

President Bush sought to define victory before the contest. ''The fact that they're voting'' means success, he said.

But is simply holding an election sufficient, even in light of insurgent threats and ethnic divides in a nation that will be holding its first direct parliamentary vote in more than half a century?

Opinion tends to divide along the same political lines that were evident in the U.S. election last year.

''Just having elections is going to be a victory, and then formation of a new government will be a greater victory,'' said Michael Rubin, who served as an adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq from July 2003 to April 2004. He spent the first half of January in Iraq and works as an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.

''The fact that people are willing to turn out at all is a significant success,'' said Randy Scheunemann, a member of the board of the conservative think tank Project for the New American Century and a former congressional aide to two Republican leaders in the Senate.

But former Ambassador Wendy R. Sherman, who served in the State Department during the Clinton administration, said, ''One election a democracy does not make.'' She added, ''I think the administration has attempted to lower expectations.''

Said Rashid Khalidi, director of the Middle East Institute at Columbia University: ''The administration will proclaim victory no matter what happens. It's directed as much at the American electorate as the Iraqi electorate.''

Who votes, not just how many, could be a critical factor in calculating the success of the election. Much attention will be on the Sunni Arabs, who comprise 20 percent of the population, and whether they risk their lives in the most dangerous sections of Iraq to cast ballots.

Broad turnout for the election, with the nation's Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds choosing the 275-member National Assembly, could provide a major boost for the subsequent steps of creating a viable Iraqi government. But insurgent threats and local doubts about the voting process could seriously undercut turnout among the Sunni ethnic group.

Even if Sunnis do not vote in significant numbers, U.S. officials welcomed the idea put forth by some Iraqis to involve the Sunnis in the postelection work of choosing a prime minister, drafting a constitution and ensuring new national elections at the end of the year.

''We may be overstressing the issue of Sunni participation,'' said Daniel Goure, vice president of the Lexington Institute, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank. ''We have to look carefully at who gets elected from the Shia side. Are they people who have a commitment to multicultural, multiethnic'' government.

The ballot is long. It has more than 7,700 names. Voters will choose slates of candidates.

The U.S. preference is for a secular government. ''They don't want a Shiite majority run by the clerics,'' Sherman said.

Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, an administration favorite, heads one slate, although the United Iraqi Alliance slate, backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is expected to do better at the polls.

On the outs with the administration is Ahmad Chalabi, the secular Shiite banker who headed the Iraqi National Congress and had a parting with the Pentagon amid allegations that his group alerted Iran that the United States had broken a secret Iranian communications code. Chalabi denied that was the case. He is running with the United Iraqi Alliance.

''We've already burned our bridges to him,'' Rubin said.

Associated Press Writer Anne Gearan contributed to this report.

[Faithless]

John Kerry the Grinch Who Doesn’t Like Iraq Election Results

By Sher Zieve
MichNews.com
Jan 30, 2005

Failed presidential candidate and the current junior leftist-Senator from Massachusetts said of the Iraqi elections, Sunday on Meet the Press: “No one in the United States should try to over-hype this election.” This was another “sore loser” and typical leftist Democrat attempt to disparage anything and everything that doesn’t, specifically, help them regain their power and prestige. It was, also, another confirmation that the Dems care about nothing and no one save themselves… and, of course, France. Then, in typical flip-flop Kerry fashion, he said: “I think this election is important. I was for the election taking place.” And, after completing his hour-long interview on Meet the Press, Kerry was caught by a reporter and reversed himself, yet again, when he said: “The [Iraq] elections don’t mean that much.” This already-announced-presidential-candidate for 2008, hasn’t changed a whit since his unsuccessful 2004 run for the presidency. It has become clear that he can’t help himself. Foot-in-mouth disease is common amongst these folks.

These comments to, at best, trivialize anything that speaks of freedom and liberty have now become commonplace for the leftist Dems. Teddy Kennedy proved that, last week, when he called for an “immediate pullout of our troops from Iraq”; before their elections! These leftists have not only lost their communal mind but, any last chance of resurrecting any small semblance of their integrity. However, those of us who believe in liberty should take heart. The US leftist-Dems have finally and unequivocally shown us, the American public, their true intentions and beliefs; to unrelentingly discount and crack down on individual freedoms. To them, these freedoms are unimportant for “the masses”. I trust we will remember that in both 2006 and 2008.

Copyright by Sher Zieve

Sher Zieve is a Conservative political commentator who firmly believes that if Leftists ran the country (left to their own devices), it would be the end of the United States as a sovereign nation. Ms. Zieve welcomes your comments and can be reached at

[hooligan]

I agree with Ism, it's going to be a win-win situation. If the Iraq elections didn't go so well, it's still a strong case for war. If they went well, Bush's plan is successful. There's no way that he can lose, especially with the way they've been spinning the war.

I've also been wondering how much Iraqi expats living across the world are fairing? I mean, I think the turnout from them will be abnormally high because of the US sponsored voting places near their communities.

[TB4000]

Well, their voter turnout was pretty much the same as ours...meaning paltry.

[ism]

Okay, so the election went off fairly well, about 44 dead at polling places, much lower than I expected. I don't think it could have gone any better.

Now the uncertainty of what happens between the Shiite majority and Sunni minority is the last roadblock for Bush. With the elections done, and a "freely elected government" in place, any insurgency will be more firmly framed as against the Iraqi government itself, rather than the U.S. occupation. The scariest thing is how much influence the other Muslim nations will introduce into Iraq, especially the Sunni ones. A full-fledged civil war might actually be the best scenario, assuming it finishes and doesn't devolve back into guerrilla warfare. With U.S. officials saying we'll be out in 18 months, it seems like they've looked at several scenarios and concluded we can let Iraq go soon.

[Faithless]

Alright so close to 50 during the election process.

Add that to the 10's of thousands of civilians, etc. killed up to the election.

http://www.iraqbodycount.net/

High price paid for Iraq election

January 29, 2005

Our position is: Election in Iraq is crucial, but it has come at a heavy price.

Blood and terror have plagued the long and dangerous march to election day in Iraq. Now, for 10 hours this weekend, millions of Iraqis will brave the threat of terrorist attack to cast ballots in the nation's first free election in 50 years.

The vote will be a triumph of courage and hope. And of democracy.

Much could go wrong, however, in the hours before and after polls open. Insurgents, led by terrorist master Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, have vowed to attack polling places and target both voters and candidates. The pace of attacks already has accelerated. Fear remains a frequent companion in Baghdad and Basra.

The true enemy of Zarqawi and his murderous followers is democracy itself.

"We have declared a fierce war on this evil principle of democracy and those who follow this wrong ideology," Zarqawi said in a recent statement.

In a sense, Zarqawi's fear is rational. A freely elected government in Iraq will send a powerful signal to millions of people in the Middle East who now chafe under political and religious oppression.

Yet, the seeds of democracy will grow slowly. Indiana's Sen. Richard Lugar has warned Americans not to expect a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops once the new Iraqi government is established. Much hard, dangerous work remains.

The Bush administration, however, does need now to better define its strategies for drawing down troops and eventually turning over complete control to the new government.

This weekend's election is another crucial step toward a free and stable Iraq. It has come at enormous cost in terms of lives lost and dollars spent, a reality that makes any celebration of democracy's victory bittersweet.

[Faithless]

As far as the Shia and Sunni's are concerned --

I think I read somewhere that early "exit polls" (take them for what they're worth at this stage) show a large Shia representation and a small Sunni representation (although their support supposedly turned-out in a larger number then expected.)

I understand that the Whitehouse does not really care for a Shia dominated government. And even though it does not appear that this faction is not as extreme as it can be, only time will tell.

The election is only one thing happening in Iraq. There is still massive reconstruction and the reality of dealing with the ill-will that will develop over the Iraqi civilians that were killed along the way.

[Bhodi_Li]

Originally Posted by ChottoMatte

The election is only one thing happening in Iraq. There is still massive reconstruction and the reality of dealing with the ill-will that will develop over the Iraqi civilians that were killed along the way.

Very true. So many things get swept under the rug because of the violence. The reconstruction alone is a tremendous undertaking. Part of our job was replacing the old power grid of cities. The entire grid was wired incorrectly resulting in frequent power outages and fires and required a total replacement all the way down to every single house. Needless to say every house has not yet been rewired, plus the sabotage didn't help either.

The elections were another major step forward for the US. We all know that it's not perfect but it's movement in the right direction. We just have to keep chipping away at it.

I tell you, global domination isn't this difficult in the game RISK

[Faithless]

Originally Posted by Bhodi_Li

Very true. So many things get swept under the rug because of the violence. The reconstruction alone is a tremendous undertaking. Part of our job was replacing the old power grid of cities. The entire grid was wired incorrectly resulting in frequent power outages and fires and required a total replacement all the way down to every single house. Needless to say every house has not yet been rewired, plus the sabotage didn't help either.

Do military personnel do the electrical work?

Originally Posted by Bhodi_Li

The elections were another major step forward for the US. We all know that it's not perfect but it's movement in the right direction. We just have to keep chipping away at it.

I tell you, global domination isn't this difficult in the game RISK

And I think you all have done a great job in keeping the incidents relatively low!

[Faithless]

Iraqi election results delayed on recount
03:39 PM CST on Wednesday, February 9, 2005

By ROBERT H. REID
Associated Press

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Iraqi officials said Wednesday they must recount votes from about 300 ballot boxes because of various discrepancies, delaying final results from the landmark national elections. Hundreds - perhaps thousands - of other ballots were declared invalid because of alleged tampering.

Khalid Mohammed / AP Photo
A photographer takes pictures of improperly processed ballots and ballot boxes on display by the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq at a Wednesday press conference in Baghdad, Iraq.

Postelection violence mounted, raising fears that the Jan. 30 balloting had done little to ease the country's grave security crisis.

An American soldier was killed Wednesday and another wounded in an ambush north of the capital, the U.S. military said. Two other American soldiers died earlier in the week, the command said Wednesday.

Gunmen ambushed a convoy of Kurdish party officials in Baghdad, killing one and wounding four. And in the southern city of Basra, gunmen killed an Iraqi journalist working for a U.S.-funded TV station and his 3-year-old son as they left their home.

Officials had promised final results from the elections by Thursday, the end of the Iraqi work week. On Wednesday, however, election commission spokesman Farid Ayar said the deadline would not be met because of the recount.

"We don't know when this will finish," he said. "This will lead to a little postponement in announcing the results."

No partial tallies have been released since Monday in the contests for the 275-member National Assembly, 18 provincial councils and a regional parliament for the Kurdish self-governing region in the north.

The most recent figures showed a coalition of Kurdish parties in second place behind a Shiite-dominated ticket endorsed by Iraq's most revered Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The ticket of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, was a distant third.

Allegations of voting irregularities, especially around the tense northern city of Mosul, have complicated the count. Some leading Sunni Arab and Christian politicians alleged that thousands of their supporters were denied the right to vote.

Election officials blamed the problems in the Mosul area on security, which prevented fewer than a third of the planned 330 polling centers from opening. Gunmen seized some ballot boxes, officials said.

The commission would not say how many ballots had been declared invalid and whether they had come from the Mosul area, which has a mostly Sunni Arab population. Many Sunnis are believed to have stayed home on election day, either because they feared insurgent reprisals or opposed a ballot as long as U.S. and other foreign troops were on Iraqi soil.

Commission official Adel al-Lami said the ballots in 40 boxes and 250 bags would not be counted because they appeared to have been stuffed inside them or, in some cases, improperly folded. Some of the boxes were not those approved by the commission, and others were improperly sealed, he said.

Before the election, commission officials estimated each box should contain about 500 ballots. It was unclear whether the bags contained roughly the same number of ballots.

Meanwhile, a Western legal expert said investigative judges were nearly ready to hand over lengthy dossiers of affidavits, witness statements and other documents to a five-judge panel that would run the trials for former members of Saddam Hussein's regime.

The expert, who spoke on condition of anonymity, would not say which of Saddam's 11 lieutenants were likely to face the Iraqi Special Tribunal first, and it was unclear when the dictator himself would stand trial.

Formal charges will not come until the investigating judges refer the cases to the trial chamber. The first dossiers were expected to be delivered to trial judges in several weeks, the legal expert said.

In December, investigative judges summoned Saddam's cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid, better known as Chemical Ali for his role in poison gas attacks on Kurds, and former Defense Minister Gen. Sultan Hashim Ahmad to appear at closed-door preliminary hearings.

The American soldier was killed Wednesday in an ambush near Balad, a major U.S. base about 50 miles north of Baghdad. Another U.S. soldier died Tuesday of a gunshot wound at the Balad base. A third was killed Sunday while on patrol in Mosul. More than 1,450 members of the U.S. military have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003.

Police said they had no leads in the slaying of Abdul Hussein Khazal al-Basri, the correspondent for Al-Hurra TV station, and his young son. Al-Basri was also an official of the Islamic Dawa party, editor of a newspaper in Basra and head of the press office of the Basra City Council.

It was unclear if his affiliation with Al-Hurra was the motive for the slaying. The station, launched a year ago, was tailored for Arab audiences to compete with regional stations like Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya. President Bush said it was created to "cut through the hateful propaganda" broadcast in the Arab world.

In Rome, the newspaper that employs an Italian journalist held hostage in Iraq said Wednesday it has indications she is alive and that intelligence officials have established indirect contact with her kidnappers.

Giuliana Sgrena, a reporter for communist daily Il Manifesto, was abducted by gunmen Friday outside Baghdad University. Conflicting claims have appeared on Islamic militant Web sites: One said she had been killed, while another said she would be released soon.

Il Manifesto said an unspecified contact person saw Sgrena on Monday and Tuesday, reporting that she was well. The paper said the person could be used as a mediator in future communications with Sgrena's kidnappers.

The contact is the result of work by Italy's government and intelligence services, the newspaper said.

[Faithless]

Interesting article about one of Iraq's nominated Prime Minister's -- Ibrahim Jafari -- a conservative who refuses to shake women's hands.

He is a member of the Dawa Party -- a group with ties to Iran that has been linked to bombings in bombings of US and French embassies in Kuwait.

Islamist Is Nominated as Iraqi Premier

February 23, 2005

# Ibrahim Jafari wins the backing of the powerful Shiite-led bloc. The choice of the Muslim scholar with ties to Iran worries some groups.

By John Daniszewski, Times Staff Writer

BAGHDAD — Ibrahim Jafari, a Muslim scholar and leader of Iraq's oldest Islamist party, was unanimously nominated as prime minister Tuesday by the Shiite-led alliance that carried the country's historic elections last month, and his confirmation by the national assembly seemed all but assured.

The selection of Jafari opens the way for the first Shiite-led government in Iraq's modern existence, and it signals a dramatic change for the Arab world, where Sunni Muslims are dominant. It also puts the United States in the position of providing its armed forces to protect a government led by an Islamist with ties to Iran.

The United Iraqi Alliance selected Jafari after the other main contender, veteran exile leader Ahmad Chalabi, backed out under pressure Tuesday. Jafari was chosen after two days of meetings at a compound bedecked in religious insignia and controlled by the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

Outlining his priorities at a news conference Tuesday, Jafari pledged to include other religious and ethnic groups in the new government. He vowed to be firm with the "criminals" responsible for the insurgency that has wreaked havoc on Iraq's economy and reconstruction.

"Security is our first priority, as it dominates the minds of our citizens. The state has broken down because of fractured security, reflected in the absence of public services and a paralysis in reconstruction," he said. "We will use toughness in those situations that require toughness, and we will use the highest degree of softness in those areas that need softness."

Jafari said he expected the new government to be finalized within two weeks after talks were held within the Shiite alliance and with other political groups to resolve major appointments.

Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, whose slate came in second in the Jan. 30 election, is thought to be in line to get the largely ceremonial post of president. Interim President Ghazi Ajil Yawer, a Sunni Arab whose slate did poorly in the vote, is considered the favorite to become speaker of the assembly. However, negotiations were continuing.

Jafari, who has served as interim vice president since June, has consistently rated as one of Iraq's most popular politicians in polls. But his selection aroused misgivings among several groups.

Secular Iraqis and religious minorities are concerned that his strong Muslim beliefs could diminish the status of women; Sunni Muslims distrust his Islamic Dawa Party because it has had close ties to Iran.

A devout Shiite, who according to an aide has the scholarly rank of mujtahid, or one qualified to give religious rulings, Jafari refuses to shake the hands of women and was behind a move last year to make Islamic law Iraq's legal basis for dealing with issues such as marriage, divorce and inheritances.

The Dawa Party, founded in 1957 in Najaf, long battled the regime of Saddam Hussein. Brutally suppressed by Hussein, it was given sanctuary in Iran, and Jafari lived for nine years under that country's Islamic rule. He then moved to London, where he led his party branch in exile until his return to Iraq in 2003 after the U.S.-led invasion.

U.S. policy has been not to interfere in the selection of the new government, and a U.S. diplomat in Baghdad said recently that Washington would "work with whatever government the Iraqi people freely chose." But privately, American officials were thought to be ambivalent about the choice.

On the key question of whether U.S. forces should leave, Jafari said Tuesday that he favored "withdrawal of the troops from Iraq as soon as possible." He acknowledged, however, that it would be dangerous for them to leave immediately.

Incumbent Prime Minister Iyad Allawi remains in the race against Jafari, but even his own party members give him virtually no chance of succeeding. A secular politician and former Baath Party member who broke with Hussein's regime in the 1970s, Allawi has been a favorite of the White House since assuming office nearly nine months ago. But he has been criticized by some members of the Shiite coalition who believe he was too willing to bring former Baathists into Iraq's new police and security services.

The Shiite coalition is formidable because it controls 140 of the 275 seats in the assembly and has forged postelection alliances with several small parties that hold about 10 additional seats.

Allawi's party controls 40 seats. Even if it were to make a deal with the second-place Kurdish alliance, with 75 seats, it would be far short of the two-thirds majority, or 182 votes, that is required for appointing the three-member presidential council, which technically selects the prime minister.

Shiite leaders hope to strike deals to include both the Kurds and Allawi's ticket, plus two Sunni parties that boycotted the election, to form what party leaders have proclaimed will be a government of national unity.

In an olive branch to Sunni Arabs who did not participate in the Jan. 30 voting, Jafari said he would look at candidates for his government appointments without regard to sect and would "build bridges" to those who boycotted the elections.

"They can participate in the making of the new Iraq, regardless of past differences," he said.

What role Chalabi might play was unclear. One of his aides, Qaisar Witwit, was quoted by Associated Press as saying he could become deputy prime minister in charge of the economy and security.

Long close to the Pentagon, Chalabi had a falling out with the U.S. last year. American officials voiced unhappiness with him over what they said was his forwarding of inaccurate information about Iraq's supposed weapons of mass destruction before the U.S.-led invasion, his alleged provision of secret information to Iran and his purported involvement in a counterfeiting case in Iraq. He has denied wrongdoing.

As for Allawi, Shiite political spokesman Rida Jawad Taqi acknowledged speculation that the current prime minister, who met with Jafari for 90 minutes Monday, could be the Shiite coalition's choice for defense minister. He emphasized that "the distribution of the ministries is under discussion and nothing was settled yet."

Jafari, who is soft-spoken and conciliatory by nature and often speaks in general terms, did not comment on such questions Tuesday. He told reporters that the government would be formed based on merit, and no one would be ruled out, although the choices would take the election results into account.



Asked by The Times how his religious beliefs would affect his duties, Jafari said, "I will not act in a personal manner but rather represent a harmonious program that has been agreed upon."

The main points, he said, are, "security, political independence, economic prosperity, guaranteed freedoms and the participation of the whole Iraqi spectrum."

Chalabi had made a robust bid for the job, with supporters saying as late as Tuesday morning that he had sufficient support to win in a secret ballot.

But one source within the alliance said Chalabi was considered too divisive a figure by the two main Shiite parties, Dawa and the Supreme Council, and that he could not have united its members as well as Jafari. However, Chalabi's withdrawal from the race seemed likely to add to his political credit.

Chalabi, who appeared at the news conference with Jafari, said he had ended his candidacy "for the unity of the alliance." He denied that he had been promised any particular position in return for agreeing to step aside. "This is not about posts," he said.

Initial public reaction to Jafari's nomination seemed split along religious lines. Shiites, who despite being a majority in Iraq have long been dominated by Sunni Arabs and suffered oppression under Hussein, were most enthusiastic.

"It is a great pride for the Shiites," said Muhannad Ali, 22, a policeman and member of the Badr Brigade militia that is affiliated with the Supreme Council. "I was so eager for him to win, because he is first of all a man of religion. Chalabi is also patriotic, but he is not religious. We want a religious man. We want to be close to God!"

"People oppressed in the old times will be relieved," Hashim Shimam, 33, an itinerant laborer, said in the heavily Shiite New Baghdad district.

Some Sunnis, though, voiced fears about Jafari's nomination.

"I don't like Jafari. He was linked to the Dawa Party and will treat us as badly as Saddam treated them and worse. Everyone knows he is anti-Baath," said Wrood Tariq, 22, a Sunni college student in Baghdad.

In what some might see as historical justice, the meeting of the Shiite alliance to choose Jafari took place in the former home of Tarik Aziz, Hussein's longtime Baath Party comrade and deputy prime minister.

In an effort to suppress Shiite political aspirations, Hussein banned the Dawa Party in 1980 and hanged its founder and spiritual guide after an assassination attempt on Aziz that was blamed on the Islamists.

Now, Aziz is in U.S. custody and awaiting trial, and his heavily fortified house on the Tigris River has become a residence for Abdelaziz Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council.

Times staff writers Raheem Salman and special correspondents Said Rifai, Caesar Ahmed and Zainab Hussein contributed to this report.

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The history of the Dawa party

Posted on Wed, Feb. 16, 2005
Knight Ridder Newspapers

(KRT) - The Dawa party was formed in the late 1950s as a reaction to the rise of secular political movements in Iraq, particularly the communist party. Dawa later came into conflict with the secular pan-Arab Baathist movement during the 1960s, and violence erupted. Dawa had undercover members across the country, including a young medical student in Mosul: Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who's now the leading candidate for prime minister.

Dawa leader Muhammad Baqr al-Sadr was inspired by the Iranian revolution and was a proponent of an Islamic state with clerical rulers. In 1980 the Baathist government outlawed membership in Dawa, making it a crime punishable by death. That same year, Dawa attempted to assassinate an aide to Saddam Hussein, Tariq Aziz. Al-Sadr was captured and killed by Saddam's security forces. Assassination attempts against Saddam followed. There were large-scale roundups of Dawa members, who faced torture and death.

A Dawa splinter group staged two suicide bombings at the U.S. and French embassies in Kuwait in December 1983. Seventeen of them were caught, convicted and imprisoned by the Kuwaitis, including the brother-in-law of Imad Mugniyah, a Lebanese Hezbollah member who began taking Americans hostage in Beirut in an attempt to spring his wife's brother.

Many of Dawa's members, including al-Jaafari, returned from exile after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Its membership follows the direction of the majar'iya, the ruling council of clerics in Najaf headed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.