achtungbaby
07-09-2002, 12:20 PM
Wed Jul 3, 1:32 PM ET
By GEORGE GEDDA, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - Asia has been a tough neighborhood for the United States for years. Between 1941 and 1975, American troops were sent to fight against Japanese, North Koreans and Vietnamese, with few intervals of peace.
Afghanistan ( news - web sites) aside, the hot wars have stopped, but the risks of conflict on the continent, particularly in the East and Northeast, have been relatively constant to this day.
Nerves were rattled at the State Department and the Pentagon ( news - web sites) last Saturday when vessels from the two Koreas had a shootout in South Korean territorial waters.
The reason for the angst was that such confrontations on the peninsula can escalate — and lead quickly to the involvement of American forces. The conflict between China and Taiwan poses similar risks. Both struggles are more than 50 years old.
Bates Gill, an Asia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says it's hard to overestimate the dangers in those regions.
"The potential for pretty serious security challenges to become more challenging is always out there," he says.
In much of Asia, efforts to achieve neighborly relations are thwarted by historical grudges, ideological clashes, religious strife, weapons of mass destruction and uncertainty about whether a resurgent China will be a force for peace.
U.S. administrations often expend energies elsewhere when a serious outbreak of violence threatens. Each time India and Pakistan engage in threats and counter-threats, U.S. diplomats swing into action, as they did this past spring.
But the possibility of direct American military involvement resulting from a nuclear exchange between the two is highly unlikely.
On the Korean Peninsula, not much has changed since the Armistice was signed almost 50 years ago.
Last Saturday's confrontation between the vessels of the two Koreas helped derail an administration effort to resume negotiations with North Korea ( news - web sites) on nonproliferation and other issues that were expected to start next week.
Expressing outrage over the Saturday incident, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung ( news - web sites) warned of potentially dire consequences for the North. "We have the capacity," he said.
North Korea is no slouch itself. Its chemical and biological weapons capabilities threaten the 37,000 U.S. forces in South Korea ( news - web sites) as well as the country's civilian population centers.
Gill ranks the conflict between China and Taiwan as even more perilous.
"Two great powers could come into conflict," he says, alluding to China and the United States.
President Bush ( news - web sites) said last year he was prepared to do "whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."
Administration officials are debating how the China-Taiwan power balance is affected by China's testing of new advanced air-to-air missiles last week. To counter this Chinese upgrade, help for Taiwan may be on the way, officials say.
Taiwan aside, there is no consensus here as to how China, once it achieves its full economic and military potential, will relate to its neighbors.
"China's future is very much to be shaped," says Paul Wolfowitz, second in command at the Pentagon. China, he says, could become a force for peace or a "threatening power."
U.S. security concerns, of course, are not limited to East Asia. Iraq has the means and the motives to inflict grave damage on the United States. And so do terrorists from al-Qaida and other groups. The American military effort in Afghanistan is approaching the nine-month mark.
Unlike some conflicts, the China-Taiwan and Korean Peninsula struggles seem never to go away.
"These are long term and intractable challenges," says Gill. "I don't think they will erupt into conflict any time soon. They will still pose an intensive security dilemma. They will require lots of care and feeding."
By GEORGE GEDDA, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - Asia has been a tough neighborhood for the United States for years. Between 1941 and 1975, American troops were sent to fight against Japanese, North Koreans and Vietnamese, with few intervals of peace.
Afghanistan ( news - web sites) aside, the hot wars have stopped, but the risks of conflict on the continent, particularly in the East and Northeast, have been relatively constant to this day.
Nerves were rattled at the State Department and the Pentagon ( news - web sites) last Saturday when vessels from the two Koreas had a shootout in South Korean territorial waters.
The reason for the angst was that such confrontations on the peninsula can escalate — and lead quickly to the involvement of American forces. The conflict between China and Taiwan poses similar risks. Both struggles are more than 50 years old.
Bates Gill, an Asia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says it's hard to overestimate the dangers in those regions.
"The potential for pretty serious security challenges to become more challenging is always out there," he says.
In much of Asia, efforts to achieve neighborly relations are thwarted by historical grudges, ideological clashes, religious strife, weapons of mass destruction and uncertainty about whether a resurgent China will be a force for peace.
U.S. administrations often expend energies elsewhere when a serious outbreak of violence threatens. Each time India and Pakistan engage in threats and counter-threats, U.S. diplomats swing into action, as they did this past spring.
But the possibility of direct American military involvement resulting from a nuclear exchange between the two is highly unlikely.
On the Korean Peninsula, not much has changed since the Armistice was signed almost 50 years ago.
Last Saturday's confrontation between the vessels of the two Koreas helped derail an administration effort to resume negotiations with North Korea ( news - web sites) on nonproliferation and other issues that were expected to start next week.
Expressing outrage over the Saturday incident, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung ( news - web sites) warned of potentially dire consequences for the North. "We have the capacity," he said.
North Korea is no slouch itself. Its chemical and biological weapons capabilities threaten the 37,000 U.S. forces in South Korea ( news - web sites) as well as the country's civilian population centers.
Gill ranks the conflict between China and Taiwan as even more perilous.
"Two great powers could come into conflict," he says, alluding to China and the United States.
President Bush ( news - web sites) said last year he was prepared to do "whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."
Administration officials are debating how the China-Taiwan power balance is affected by China's testing of new advanced air-to-air missiles last week. To counter this Chinese upgrade, help for Taiwan may be on the way, officials say.
Taiwan aside, there is no consensus here as to how China, once it achieves its full economic and military potential, will relate to its neighbors.
"China's future is very much to be shaped," says Paul Wolfowitz, second in command at the Pentagon. China, he says, could become a force for peace or a "threatening power."
U.S. security concerns, of course, are not limited to East Asia. Iraq has the means and the motives to inflict grave damage on the United States. And so do terrorists from al-Qaida and other groups. The American military effort in Afghanistan is approaching the nine-month mark.
Unlike some conflicts, the China-Taiwan and Korean Peninsula struggles seem never to go away.
"These are long term and intractable challenges," says Gill. "I don't think they will erupt into conflict any time soon. They will still pose an intensive security dilemma. They will require lots of care and feeding."