US-China-Taiwan: Missile diplomacy

[SunWuKong]

US-China-Taiwan: Missile diplomacy
By Macabe Keliher

TAIPEI - Under the warm Texas sun on October 25, with the smell of sagebrush blowing over Crawford's dirt roads, one president proposed to another: If China "froze" its missile deployment along the Fujian coast, would the United States reduce weapons sales to Taiwan? As tantalizing a question as it was, Chinese President Jiang Zemin and US President George W Bush "only touched on the issue and did not continue to discuss it further", according to Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan's top representative in the United States.

Although the presidential proposition ceased at Bush's ranch, the memos have continued to fly around China, testing the currents as usually happens before a major policy change. China is considering lowering the military threat against Taiwan, its "renegade province" just 150 kilometers off the Fujian coast. Of the 400 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at the island, China may "freeze" further deployment, or "reduce" or "move inland" the M-11s. Although such an act would not leave Taiwan out of harm's way, or even amount to Beijing backing down on the use of force, it would give the international community a sign that Beijing is finally acting like a responsible country in the family of nations and is sincere about stability. But more than that, it would mark a significant change in Beijing's Taiwan policy, moving from the longtime position of using military deterrence against independence, to expressing goodwill and encouraging the island to unite under the Beijing government.



more... (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/DL12Ad01.html)

[SunWuKong]

It was yesterday's news (?) the US stopped a North Korean ship delivering missiles to Yemen. I wonder if Beijing did that to the US sales of "weapon of mass destruction" to Taiwan what would happen.


turning the tables around. very good point.

[wylin]

we need orbital bombers a good 1-2ton shell coming in from high orbit can hit things within 50 feet and make nuclear level damage w/o radiation.

[loserbutt]

hey guys, who's the aggressor here who is threatening military action against Taiwan?

[SunWuKong]

hey guys, who's the aggressor here who is threatening military action against Taiwan?


well i don't agree with it, but basically the threat is just that - a threat. this is how it works, ah-bian does something stupid, CCP threatens war, taiwanese stocks plummet, taiwanese people get mad at ah-bian. repeat.

[loserbutt]

eh, isn't the president of taiwan chen?

and as for does something stupid, define doing something stupid

[SunWuKong]

eh, isn't the president of taiwan chen?

and as for does something stupid, define doing something stupid

yes chen shui bian aka ah-bian
doing something stupid as in hijacking taiwan toward independence when taiwanese people just want the status quo.

[SunWuKong]

I think status quo is good for now. I am no supporter of the CPC ruling power in China. There is hope for the new generation of leaders like Hu Jintao that understand authoritarian governance and communism don't work. The PRC economy is capitalistic and it needs time for the new leaders to change the government from the inside out.

Chen Shui-bian is an idiot. He is a strong supporter of separatism, because he likes the power and his gain from Taiwan independence. Taiwanese people have much more to gain from reunification than status quo or independence. Many of Taiwanese companies are doing business and investment in the mainland and any alternative to the status quo or reunification can only hurt Taiwanese people.

I think you should read up on US military bases in South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia and see what can happen to Taiwan if it's a sovereign nation. And see the unequal treaties that can come about by carrying a "big stick."

This was not the vision of Sun Yat-Sen. Taiwanese are Chinese. Taiwan is still called the Republic of China. The Chinese people had resisted the Westerners from carving up China for centuries and it's a sad day when we divide ourself.


i think by now the chinese government is only communist by name. it's more like authoritorian and fascist (fascism has a negative connotation to it, but by definition, the current system of chinese government resembles fascism). there really isn't much communism left in china. even businessmen are admitted to the communist party. i think marx just rolled over in his grave.

but yeah, most taiwanese people also think of themselves as chinese. sort of like how fujianese people are chinese people, and cantonese people are chinese people, etc etc.

[Green_Circle]

"I think you should read up on US military bases in South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia and see what can happen to Taiwan if it's a sovereign nation. And see the unequal treaties that can come about by carrying a "big stick."

This is so true Taz. I often wonder how PRC feels about being literally surrounded on almost every front by US forces and weapons of mass destruction. It's a frightening situation to go up against the most deadliest superpower in all creation. The only one to ever use nuclear weapons to devastate a population now has a leader who claims that he will push the button first . Any other nation should be cowering in fear of the omnipotent USA. Even without their nuclear arsenal they can rain down death from all of their vast supply of firepower and weaponry unparalleled in the history of the planet. Either toe the line or get nuked. Have it your way.

[TyroneK(prettypretty)]

Hey. To supplement the record, there are a lot of Taiwanese people who do desire independence even if they do recognize that it's not the most feasible option. They're the hard core DPP'ers who got Chen elected in the first place. Most of the Taiwanese people I know support the status quo only because we're a de facto independent nation anyways. If that's the closest we'll ever get to independent statehood, then we'll stick to that. All things being ideal though (PRC giving up claim over us), we'd rather run things ourselves and just have close ties to the mainland.

I haven't been able to catch up with the state of affairs in that area. Has the PRC ever offered a one nation-two systems arrangement like they hyped up for HK?

If the KMT and their affiliated thugs hadn't given mainlanders such a bad name in Taiwan, there probably wouldn't be such a strong lean towards independence in the government.

[TyroneK(prettypretty)]

Plus, Taiwanese people love their democracy. I found the feeling that too many people died and suffered for that for many people to really go forth with reunification without some more compromise on the PRC's side.

[TyroneK(prettypretty)]

I really don't agree with your villainization of Chen. He's not the only problem. PRC intransigence has contributed more than its fair share to the breakoff of talks.

[TyroneK(prettypretty)]

My family's pretty separatist. I guess it's what happens in the context of growing up with the KMT's goons monitoring your every move. The idea of going back into the fold of an autocratic government along those linesisn't exactly welcoming.

I would love independence, but I feel reunification is inevitable and in the best interests of the people given the current and foreseeable geopolitical future. I'd just like more guarantees that the Taiwanese people would be able to continue to enjoy the political system that they're so supportive of and involved in.

I just have my shotgun to make sure the billion other penguins who've got your back don't make a sudden move if you get too ticked off with me. :lol:

[VV o n g B a]

Yeah, look at the Japanese. Where's their nationalism? They're like all pacifist or something. Japan is like a little bitch to the US. And look at the injustices in South Korea committed by US soldiers. The prostitution surrounds these bases.

Beijing has talked about the "one country, two system" policy for Taiwan. We've leaders like Chen Shui-bian that only wants independence, so there's no dialogue. Sun Yat-sen is the real founding father of the RoC and I am sure that's not what he wants.

where's their nationalism? actually, they have plenty of it. the prime minister visited a war shrine b/c of nationalism. nationalists cook the textbooks b/c of it and ransack offices of people who oppose their views. but they have pacifists too. its like any other society, lots of different views.

america is wrong on lots and lots of issues, and i hate the current administration, but overall, they have not been as imperialistic as they could have been. they've had plenty of opportunities to take and hold huge pieces of land, but they either don't (cuba) or buy the land (mexico after a war which mexico lost). yes, they pulled the atomic bomb trigger. but do u think that if given the chance, other nations wouldn't have in ww2? if they had wanted to, they could have stayed as an occupation gov't in japan, but they left, even if they do direct a lot of japan's foreign policy... its in japan's interest in case china becomes expansionistic. japan knows how the US treats them. they have no idea how china would treat them. so although china hasn't demonstrated much expansionist policy, keeping america close is like insurance for japan.

finally, the hawks in the administration are only one aspect of a multifaceted gov't. not all officials in DC want to fight w/ china. some do certainly, but there are those who only wish to work with china (mostly b/c of money). few gov'ts are monolithic. u just have to find the right people and help them to get their policy passed.

[SunWuKong]

I haven't been able to catch up with the state of affairs in that area. Has the PRC ever offered a one nation-two systems arrangement like they hyped up for HK?


they've offered even more autonomy for taiwan. and most recently, the "one china" policy puts taiwan and PRC as equals. i'm for reunification, but personally i don't agree with the use of force, or the threat of force. the use of force equates to brother fighting brother. i know that the threat of force is used to make taiwanese people dislike what the DDP does, but it also makes taiwanese people resent the PRC. economically china has wooed taiwanese people, now they have to do it politically as well.

i really don't like the DPP, but i have to agree that it's better than the KMT in terms of governance. just take a look at the DPP website and you can see that it's inundated with propaganda. the DPP keep using the word "communist" like a dirty word as if they're back in the 50s and 60s. it's ridiculous. and they know fully well that the PRC is nothing like a communist country now.

[SunWuKong]

yes, they pulled the atomic bomb trigger. but do u think that if given the chance, other nations wouldn't have in ww2? if they had wanted to, they could have stayed as an occupation gov't in japan, but they left, even if they do direct a lot of japan's foreign policy... its in japan's interest in case china becomes expansionistic. japan knows how the US treats them. they have no idea how china would treat them. so although china hasn't demonstrated much expansionist policy, keeping america close is like insurance for japan.


actually the way that they muddle in japanese foreign affairs now is alot less costly and it's better for public image. on the surface they are not imperialistic, but for all practical purposes, the US control japanese foreign affairs. so nobody can label them imperialistic because they are not in official control of anything. just a few years ago, korea, japan, and china was talking about a FTA. but the US came in and basically twisted korea's and japan's arms to not go along with it because the FTA would have excluded the US.

"if china becomes expansionistic..." i'm more concerned with US being even more expansionistic.

[loserbutt]

Chen was ELECTED in a fair election, heck he should have won by an even larger margin but China chose that occasion to start firing some missiles in the area...

[digiaks]

It was actually the Spanish that stopped the boat not Americans. The Spanish then requested the bombing expertise of the Americans. Everything was legal so they let the boat continue.

I see all this hate the South Koreans have these days for Americans, yet about a half century ago we are the ones that saved the Koreans from the Japanese. If not for the US Korea would be a name found only in history books as the Japanese would of probably renamed their new land Koreasaki.

America has done some great things in the past and it has done some horrible things. Considering are power I think we are doing pretty well. Past empires that had our type of power were not near as kind to neighbors.

[loserbutt]

say if there were a referendum, would china allow it to go unperturbed? would it respect any results?

[SunWuKong]

Chen was ELECTED in a fair election, heck he should have won by an even larger margin but China chose that occasion to start firing some missiles in the area...

actually didn't he have to drop his hardline seperatist platform in order to get elected?



say if there were a referendum, would china allow it to go unperturbed? would it respect any results?

personally while i'm for reunification, i do think that the decision should be up to the taiwanese people. but no, the CCP wouldn't respect a referendum's results because it thinks that the referendum should also include the opinions of people in china.

[VV o n g B a]

actually the way that they muddle in japanese foreign affairs now is alot less costly and it's better for public image. on the surface they are not imperialistic, but for all practical purposes, the US control japanese foreign affairs. so nobody can label them imperialistic because they are not in official control of anything. just a few years ago, korea, japan, and china was talking about a FTA. but the US came in and basically twisted korea's and japan's arms to not go along with it because the FTA would have excluded the US.

"if china becomes expansionistic..." i'm more concerned with US being even more expansionistic.


i didn't know that. i thought the fta didn't go anywhere b/c of japan's protectionist parliament. japan has tried to break out from US policy with their little diplomatic adventure in n. korea. but i see your point.

and yea, the US is definitely a threat right now for expansionism. with a different administration in office i wouldn't say that, but with bush... yes.

America has done some great things in the past and it has done some horrible things. Considering are power I think we are doing pretty well. Past empires that had our type of power were not near as kind to neighbors.


exactly my point.

[loserbutt]

the people knew what they were doing when they elected him into office.

[SunWuKong]

well to be fair to the DPP, it is better than the KMT in its governance. if anything, taiwanese people wanted to get away from the corruption of the KMT.