10 years after handover, hong kong is thriving

[yoMAMA]

remember all those naysayers 10 years ago saying hk is doomed? especially fortune magazine, with its now infamous article, the death of hong kong.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118306369610751963.html?mod=hpp_asia_pageone

[AngryABCGirl]

hahaha I just there for all the celebrations. There's a definite touch of cynicism towards the Mainland though. I think the Mainlanders are enjoying the whole thing more than anyone and the broadcasts in Mandarin have a really different tone compared to the Cantonese and English broadcast about "ten years since the handover."

But here comes the Shopping Festival now so who cares!

That kind of described the experience. Hong Kong is definitely the place to play and work if you're educated, wealthy, and tri-lingual.

The working class hasn't been faring so well these days and many blame integration with China driving down wages and pollution- but I think that's been an inevitable worldwide trend with economic restructuring and China's development. The party goes on I guess, finances and doing business in HK is unrivaled in Asia, China's gonna be careful about not fucking it up and listening to people.

[Paradox]

The party goes on I guess, finances and doing business in HK is unrivaled in Asia, China's gonna be careful about not fucking it up and listening to people.
I was in Hong Kong around mid April. It was pretty nice being there again but the HKD expenses sure did stretch my meager baht.

I honestly don't think Hong Kong has to worry about much. It's still a financial giant in the region. Even if Shanghai is building up its reputation as a finance center its topsy turvey stock market and recent government shakeups of the banking system is causing foreign investor trepidation. That's not really the case with Hong Kong where business continues as usual.

Also, I read a recent article that a lot of brokers and finance people in Japan were flocking to HK and Singapore because they are the only english speaking regions in Asia that have world class financial institutions. Japan is losing business because of their red tape beauracracy and piss poor english skills. Thailand and Malaysia are so far behind in that area that they won't be catching up in the next 50 years if ever..

[SunWuKong]

one thing i don't like about articles from western sources that talk about the lack of democracy in HK is that they never mention the fact that the UK didn't exactly have a good track record with that itself, in how it governed HK.

firstly, the UK only let HKers elect their legislative body of the government starting in 1991. that was only 6 years short of HK's handover back to China - basically at a time when the UK didn't have to deal with the long-term implications and effects of a democratically elected legislative body in the HK government. and say what you will about the sham of an election for HK's Chief Executive right now, HKers never were given the chance to elect their British governor. also, i don't know how well HK was really represented in the UK government itself, but there were never any illusions as to the fact that HKers were colonial subjects, because HKers held a different type of British passport than UK citizens and they were never allowed right of abode in the UK. i really wish western sources actually publish some articles on the lack of democracy in HK during British rule.

don't get me wrong, i fully want more democracy in HK, and so do most HKers, i would think. but when the western media writes about that topic, it seems to me they are more interested in showing how China is repressive than really interested in the political health of HK itself.

[Golden Monkey]

All the gloom and doom talk in the Western media 10 years ago was a kind of way of saying to the Communist party - Don't get carried away with yourselves or the world financial powers will show you who the real boss is.

I think they got the message. Foreign capitalist powers helped build Hong Kong out of nothing. Everybody knew that as long as the Communist party didn't interfere with the international business aspect of HK things would work out.

[SunWuKong]

All the gloom and doom talk in the Western media 10 years ago was a kind of way of saying to the Communist party - Don't get carried away with yourselves or the world financial powers will show you who the real boss is.

I think they got the message. Foreign capitalist powers helped build Hong Kong out of nothing. Everybody knew that as long as the Communist party didn't interfere with the international business aspect of HK things would work out.

not exactly. it's not international business that HK is relying on so much anymore, because a lot of the international business is going to the Yangtze River Delta area now. HK is depending on better business integration with mainland China to help revive its economy. and the days of laissez-faire capitalism in HK is fading away. now it's more about pro-business government policies - which is not the same as laissez-faire. and the central government had to lend a hand to help HK's economy revive itself. but granted, the way that the central government helped was to knock down economic barriers, so that may be a check in the laissez-faire column.

[CBC guy]

Our local newspaper, the Vancouver Sun, did a weekend feature about this very topic. Again, much of the talk concentrated on the lack of democracy given by China, but at least the reporter DID mention that the UK was not democratic vis-a-vis HK either. They mentioned that business was booming again, and that all the gloomy predictions 10 years ago were proven wrong, if only because HK faced crises which didn't really have to do with "PRC repression of human rights" and more to do with the stock market or SARS.

The Vancouver Sun interviewed my dad (true story) and yesterday I saw a shot of my dad giving a thumbs-up to the HK Island skyline. Kinda odd to see your own dad in a newspaper. (Esp. an English one)

[haplesshobo]

remember all those naysayers 10 years ago saying hk is doomed? especially fortune magazine, with its now infamous article, the death of hong kong.


Well, initially, HK did take a hit because of the takeover when you saw a lot of the best and brightest leave because of uncertainity about how the takeover would shake out. A lot of capital, both monetary and human, left HK and went to places like Vancouver, London, etc.. However, since then,
you've seen a return to HK once fears had been assuaged.

[Paradox]

Well, initially, HK did take a hit because of the takeover when you saw a lot of the best and brightest leave because of uncertainity about how the takeover would shake out. A lot of capital, both monetary and human, left HK and went to places like Vancouver, London, etc.. However, since then,
you've seen a return to HK once fears had been assuaged.
That exodus and return may actually strengthen Hong Kong's position as a business/financial capital of the world. Some of those returnees are bringing a variety of experience and wealth from Canada and the U.K. I know a lot of the honkies that moved to Vancouver have been very successful entrepeneurs. The entire Vancouver real estate market was gobbled up by those new immigrants.

[SunWuKong]

Well, initially, HK did take a hit because of the takeover when you saw a lot of the best and brightest leave because of uncertainity about how the takeover would shake out. A lot of capital, both monetary and human, left HK and went to places like Vancouver, London, etc.. However, since then,
you've seen a return to HK once fears had been assuaged.

actually a lot of the returnees had really been returning or commuting to HK to do business even before 97. the economy was booming then. now their business is more in mainland China (which survived the Asian financial crisis thanks to the currency peg to the USD). i don't know how much monetary and human capital really left HK with the takeover, because those with significant business ties in HK never really took their business with them when they emigrated.

the Asian financial crisis definitely hit HK hard. and i always tell people that HK was a lot more affected by that than the handover. also the initial economic integration with mainland China was a big drain on capital. but i think Tung Chee Hwa can take some of the blame for the economic woes in the late 90s, too, with his policies. one notable one being his idea to take a government-drive initiative to build residential buildings and sell them for really cheap - HK's real estate market is a big part of its economy, and the speculation caused by Tung's policies contributed to crashing the market.

maybe his heart was in the right place, because he wanted to provide affordable housing. but of course when the real estate market crash, economists were saying "i told you so".

[CBC guy]

That exodus and return may actually strengthen Hong Kong's position as a business/financial capital of the world. Some of those returnees are bringing a variety of experience and wealth from Canada and the U.K. I know a lot of the honkies that moved to Vancouver have been very successful entrepeneurs. The entire Vancouver real estate market was gobbled up by those new immigrants.

The Vancouver skyline was basically made by Li Ka-Shing, the famous Hong Kong tycoon. Very nice apartments BTW

[yoMAMA]

interesting article (there's like a billion of them) on hk post 1997....

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hong-kong-beats-doom-gloom/story.aspx?guid=%7BCC950A4A%2D2C22%2D481F%2D89F0%2 D701549BCEC75%7D


Not so special any more?
Rumors of Hong Kong's impending decline into secondary-city status may have been greatly exaggerated in 1997, but things may be about to change for real this time, analysts say.
'China's capital surplus is about to make Hong Kong's past roles obsolete. China simply doesn't need capital anymore. Its main challenge is to export capital.'
— Andy Xie, independent economist
China's rapid industrialization over the past decade has helped fuel a boon in exports, stoking a rapidly growing current-account surplus. If growth continues apace, China's capital surplus will overtake Japanese levels of the 1980s, possibly exceeding $1 trillion annually.
"China's capital surplus is about to make Hong Kong's past roles obsolete," said Andy Xie, an independent economist. "China simply doesn't need capital anymore. Its main challenge is to export capital."
Xie says it's inevitable that Shanghai, more closely integrated with the mainland, will take the lead as China's financial capital over time.
He says Hong Kong is destined for a comfortable middle age, and will take its place among the world's slower-growing financial centers.
"Becoming another Switzerland is not a bad choice for Hong Kong. It is already rich and Hong Kongers are no longer hungry or as driven as mainlanders," Xie said.
Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Asia bureau chief, based in Hong Kong.

[SunWuKong]

i read an article a couple of months ago about how HK wants to court investors from the Middle East, but that they're essentially competing with Singapore, and Singapore has already made headway into that, as well as being more Muslim-friendly both demographically and geographically.

[SunWuKong]

i flipped through the current issue of the Economist during my lunch break. it ran a special report on Hong Kong. it gave the fact that the UK never gave HK democracy a one-line treatment, and went on to basically treat democracy in HK as some magic pill that'll make HK prosper and stable. and this was hand-in-hand with the recognition that HK's economy is currently doing well despite the lack of democracy. nevermind that regardless of the actual election itself, public polls actually showed majority support amongst the population for Donald Tsang, who is pro-Beijing.

i just have to ask - where were all these people when HK was under British rule for 150 years without a democratic government? where was all the western rhetoric and calls for democracy in HK before the handover? back then it was all about how much of a great specimen of laizzaire-faire economy HK was, and what a good job the UK did with HK. nevermind the fact that HK's economic rise in the 60s and 70s was due more to underpaid cheap manual labour from mainland China, and in the 80s it was due to mainland China opening up. in fact, unfair monopolies were granted to the British and land speculation was restricted to the British only several decades ago.

let's not jump ahead of ourselves here. universal suffrage and full democracy is untested territory for HK. there's no guarantee that it'll actually make the city better. i fully support making HK more democratic, but democracy in HK should be taken on its direct benefits, that HK would have a government that best represents the people - this is a just and worthy goal in and of itself. but there's absolutely no telling that full democracy will actually benefit HK's economy or stability. the glaring fact here is that HK got where it is today based on an un-democratic government.

[yoMAMA]

i just have to ask - where were all these people when HK was under British rule for 150 years without a democratic government? where was all the western rhetoric and calls for democracy in HK before the handover? back then it was all about how much of a great specimen of laizzaire-faire economy HK was, and what a good job the UK did with HK. nevermind the fact that HK's economic rise in the 60s and 70s was due more to underpaid cheap manual labour from mainland China, and in the 80s it was due to mainland China opening up. in fact, unfair monopolies were granted to the British and land speculation was restricted to the British only several decades ago.



while hk was a british colony, which is undemocratic by its nature.

but after the handover to the glorious motherland, the political system should have been an upgrade from the evil gweilo british rule. Afterall, HK is a SAR of the people's republic of china.

:wink:

[Paradox]

while hk was a british colony, which is undemocratic by its nature.

but after the handover to the glorious motherland, the political system should have been an upgrade from the evil gweilo british rule. Afterall, HK is a SAR of the people's republic of china.

:wink:

It's like the thief telling someone what to do with their car after it was recovered.