taiwan's nuclear options

[haplesshobo]

Does anybody know if and how many nuclear weapons Taiwan posseses?

I was talking to some guy who claimed Taiwan had 20-30 nuclear weapons, as well as delivery vehicle that could reach any major city in China. It just surprises me since even North Korea doesn't even have that capability, nor do the Japanese or South Koreans.

However, this is the first time I've ever heard of this. Can anybody verify this.

[loserbutt]

there've been suspicions, though I think it was dismantled long ago (someone in the know?)

actually, a nuke armed taiwan would be good I think

[yoMAMA]

I think generalismo chiang kai shek used to want to pursue nukes, but the U.S told him, "uh uh, I don't think so".

[ahsingjai]

Nope, but they did threaten China that if they invade Taiwan, they would attack the Three Dam Gorge which would kill millions.

And China said if Taiwan attacks Three Dam Gorge, China would use nukes.

[yoMAMA]

Nope, but they did threaten China that if they invade Taiwan, they would attack the Three Dam Gorge which would kill millions.

And China said if Taiwan attacks Three Dam Gorge, China would use nukes.

damm!

talk about a LOSE LOSE scenario.

:frown:

[AltimaGTR]

Nope, but they did threaten China that if they invade Taiwan, they would attack the Three Dam Gorge which would kill millions.

And China said if Taiwan attacks Three Dam Gorge, China would use nukes.
C'mon, you know darn well that 'they' = the Pentagon's report: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/89220/1/.html
That and the fact that it would be suicide to fly all the way inland while bypassing 2-3 military installments on the way makes it sound unfeasible to me. As for long-range rockets, well, anything's possible I guess. Still, I find it unfair for one to say that it was Taiwan's idea in the first place- or wait...maybe...maybe TW and the US were collaborating on an attack plan back then...OH NOEZ!!1123

[bluemonq]

taiwan has had two runs at trying to make a nuke. the first one (during the 1970s) was foreign-assisted, with separation and handling equipment obtained from friendly nations. south africa provided something like 100 tons of uranium the united states provided a small amount of plutonium for experimentation (like israel i believe?). the IAEA caught them, and when the united states "learned" of the the program, they made taiwan dismantle it. taiwan tried again in the 1980s, but a 1960s-CIA-recruited spy, colonel chang hsien-yi (deputy director of taiwan's nuclear energy research institute) defected in december of 1987 to the united states - with thousands and thousands of pages of documents on the nuclear program. at that point, most experts agree taiwan was only a year or two away from having a nuke. at this point, some people believe that if taiwan wanted to, they could have a nuclear weapon in one to three years.

for more information on taiwan's nuclear weapon program:
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/taiwan/pr121997.html
http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/tainuke.htm

[ahsingjai]

C'mon, you know darn well that 'they' = the Pentagon's report: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/89220/1/.html
That and the fact that it would be suicide to fly all the way inland while bypassing 2-3 military installments on the way makes it sound unfeasible to me. As for long-range rockets, well, anything's possible I guess. Still, I find it unfair for one to say that it was Taiwan's idea in the first place- or wait...maybe...maybe TW and the US were collaborating on an attack plan back then...OH NOEZ!!1123

It was a speculation. Yes, but China responded that if such attack happens, then China will be justified in the use of their nuclear weaponry. China doesn't have a "star wars shield". Long range missles is still possible. Of course, A fighter pilot can always try to suicide collide with the missle. But what if Taiwan launches multiple missles?

I doubt Taiwan would do such a thing, but if they were to declare independence already, they must be crazy enough to do anything.

The pentagon report was working in favor for the Taiwanese until China responded...

[Martino]

Taiwan does not have nuclear weapons.

Nope, but they did threaten China that if they invade Taiwan, they would attack the Three Dam Gorge which would kill millions.

And China said if Taiwan attacks Three Dam Gorge, China would use nukes.

Taiwan doesn't yet have the capability to attack the Three Dam Gorge. It said it wants the capability, but the US wont sell it to them.

That's not to say another country might sell Taiwan the technology in the future, but that would almost certainly invite a pre-emptive strike from China (as we discussed on That Other Thread).

And China said if Taiwan attacks Three Dam Gorge, China would use nukes.

Could you post a link? I think the BBC missed that one.

Of course, A fighter pilot can always try to suicide collide with the missle.

Generally speaking, the kind of ballistic missiles you are talking about fly at what is technically known as Very Very Fast, so that tactic may not work .....

[bluemonq]

regarding the retaliation for an attack on the three gorges dam:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/1AD82A20-7073-43CB-A180-125FA719E6A9.htm

China decries US advice for Taiwan

Lieutenant General Liu Yuan said on Wednesday that any strike on the world's biggest hydropower project would kill thousands of civilians and would lead to war.

In its annual report to Congress on China's military power, the Pentagon suggested in May that Taiwan target the dam as a deterrent.

The US Department of Defence believes such a threat would stop any Chinese invasion of the island, which split from the mainland in 1949 and is still regarded by Beijing as a breakaway province.

But Liu said - in comments to the official China Youth Daily newspaper - that attacking the dam was no deterrent at all.

Chinese warning

"[Targeting the dam] will provoke retaliation that will 'blot out the sky and cover up the earth'," he said, quoting a Chinese idiom.

The warning came as the Defence Ministry in Taiwan said it had test-fired two Patriot anti-missile missiles to demonstrate its air-defence capability.

Liu asserted that no country had conventional warhead missiles capable of critically damaging the dam - made of concrete with a maximum thickness of more than 100 metres.

Seismologists have said the dam is designed to withstand an earthquake measuring 10 on the Richter scale.

'High-value target'

The Pentagon report believes the dam could be targeted.

"Since Taipei cannot match Beijing's ability to field offensive systems, proponents of strikes against the mainland apparently hope that merely presenting credible threats to China's urban population or high-value targets, such as the
Three Gorges Dam, will deter Chinese military coercion," it said.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said last week the report was "Cold War mentality harbouring evil intentions".

US President George Bush has pledged to do whatever it takes to help "democratic Taiwan" defend itself against a Chinese invasion.
-Reuters

no mention of nukes were made. but for an attack that would 'blot out the sky and cover up the earth' would require much more than "daisy-cutter" fuel-air bombs that the united states used in afghanistan and iraq, much less the conventional warheads on the 600 ballistic missiles currently tasked to hit taiwan. that sort of damage requires nuclear weapons.

[AltimaGTR]

I doubt Taiwan would do such a thing, but if they were to declare independence already, they must be crazy enough to do anything.
Declaring independence is crazy? I guess people who want to live their own lives in a relatively democratic country without living in fear under the shadow of the middle kingdom must be crazy huh...

[haplesshobo]

also, don't you need to test nuclear at some point with an underground explosion or something else before you can know if it can work. otherwise, why was it such a big deal when india and pakistan tested theirs in the late 90s.

this guy claimed the cia stated that taiwan had 20-30 nukes.

[bluemonq]

the reason why everyone freaked when india and pakistan tested their nukes is because they have had bad blood between them for a long time.

as for "this guy", who is he? what are his credentials? where is his evidence? declassified documents only point to taiwan being close to attaining nuclear weapson, not actually having them.

[ahsingjai]

Declaring independence is crazy? I guess people who want to live their own lives in a relatively democratic country without living in fear under the shadow of the middle kingdom must be crazy huh...

Crazy as in another way, to know that China will attack, to know China is serious and to know that China is progressing and reforming and status quo is their way of having "independence" ALREADY, and to spit it at China's face by making it offical. Now that's crazy.

China isn't literally forcing Taiwan to reunitify today. They are always saying you will have to sooner or later, it's China's way of saying, just wait for us.

Back to the topic....

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/taiwan/nuke.htm

[bluemonq]

i don't see anywhere where it says taiwan having had 20 to 30 nukes.

[ahsingjai]

Taiwan could have at least "2 missles" aimed at China.

http://www.nti.org/e_research/e1_taiwan_nuclear.html

[bluemonq]

i see an abstract, and that's it. it'd be great you can find something more substantial. enough pretext for china to attack taiwan i suppose.

[haplesshobo]

as for "this guy", who is he? what are his credentials? where is his evidence? declassified documents only point to taiwan being close to attaining nuclear weapson, not actually having them.

oh, this guy is on another forum. he claims that he wrote his thesis for his masters about this from what he's hinted to be Harvard or MIT. usually, you figure people bs and lie about their credentials all the time but he seemed to have a good background knowledge on the issuses. he claimed that the CIA estimates the Taiwanese have 20-30 nuclear weapons although they don't advertise this.

quite frankly, he also stated he was ethnic taiwanese, so he's not objective about this. somebody pointed out that it was not US policy to protect Taiwan and used Armitrage's quote as evidence. He totally denied the validity of it, and stated that it was.

of course, i've also seen him state that he wouldn't hire anybody who wore a double breasted suit for an interview so he's not the most reasonable person.

[yoMAMA]

I think the only "unofficial" member of the nuclear club is Isreal.

[ahsingjai]

And Iran, N.K... Before them, it was Pakistan, India...

[bluemonq]

well, iran doesn't quite have nukes yet, they just have a program. and if it's true about the upcoming test, then pretty soon north korea won't be an unofficial member anymore.

[Martino]

he claimed that the CIA estimates the Taiwanese have 20-30 nuclear weapons although they don't advertise this.

He has 'insider' knowledge of CIA data that contradicts the CIA's public domain evaluations, which he puts on a forum? Uh huh

Somehow that just doesn't ring true, or even sound remotely credible.

Crazy as in another way, to know that China will attack, to know China is serious and to know that China is progressing and reforming and status quo is their way of having "independence" ALREADY,

Yeah, crazy that a military dictatorship might actually use its military and attack someplace, not like us peaceful democracies ...

[ahsingjai]

Since when was PRC a military dictatorship?

[Martino]

Since when was PRC a military dictatorship?

Hmmm ....

[loserbutt]

little ahsingjai seems eager for an excuse to attack Taiwan. Played too much Starcraft?

[yoMAMA]

Since when was PRC a military dictatorship?

it's officially a dictatorship of the proletarian :biggrin: .

[bluemonq]

i'd classify china more as an oligarchy. you say to-mah-to, i say to-ma-to...

[Martino]

i'd classify china more as an oligarchy. you say to-mah-to, i say to-ma-to...

Dammit, let's call the whole thing off!

There's only one way to settle this ... virtual Stone Scissors Paper ( makes hand gesture beneath desk )

[ahsingjai]

Dammit, let's call the whole thing off!

There's only one way to settle this ... virtual Stone Scissors Paper ( makes hand gesture beneath desk )

Please describe the Chinese government to us.

[bluemonq]

wikipedia defines a military dictatorship as "A form of government wherein the political power resides within the military; it is similar but not identical to a stratocracy, a state ruled directly by the military." it then defines an oligarchy as "A form of government where most political power effectively rests with a small segment of society (typically the most powerful, whether by wealth, military strength, ruthlessness, or political influence)."
Dammit, let's call the whole thing off!

There's only one way to settle this ... virtual Stone Scissors Paper ( makes hand gesture beneath desk )
what about rock, paper saddam (http://www.rockpapersaddam.com/)? or how about rock-paper-scissors-spock-lizard:
http://www.samkass.com/theories/RPSSL.gif

[TopsyTurvy]

Crazy as in another way, to know that China will attack, to know China is serious and to know that China is progressing and reforming and status quo is their way of having "independence" ALREADY, and to spit it at China's face by making it offical. Now that's crazy.

I don't believe you understood AltimaGTR's point. But hey, if you'd like to live in peace under the hegemony of China's iron fist under which there will be no freedoms then be my guest. In fact, why don't you move to China already? Let's be proactive, eh?

[Zombie Dave]

bumping a three year old thread?!?