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Kuchana
07-30-2004, 01:43 PM
Freaking long article. Analyzes part of Kerry's speech among other things. Click the link to read on for the rest.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3626796/?GT1=4244

Friday, July 30, 2004 | 9:30 a.m. ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi

First glance (95 days until election day)
Democrats just served up four days of Jim Rassmann and Max Cleland, posters and home movies of Kerry in uniform, Clark and Shali and Albright, still more veterans and first responders, and other pro-Kerry talismans of strength, security, and service. Kerry himself, "reporting for duty," gave about the best speech he's capable of delivering. He now embarks on a two-week bus tour that hits 21 states; MSNBC's Schein reports the tour kicks off with 10 buses total, five of them press, one each for Kerry and Edwards, one for family members and two for staff. President Bush, giving him no quarter (even playing off his "heart and soul of America" comment about Whoopi et al), starts a bus tour of his own that was advanced by Bush aides calling Boston last night.

Outwardly, everyone is logging miles. On the inside, we're waiting.

Kerry's speech ended at 11:00 pm, making flash polling difficult. (Try getting a happy sample of registered voters in the middle of the night.) We'll need several days and several polls for the public to really digest the Kerry Strong-and-Securapalooza and deliver a verdict.

First, there's the obvious question of what the speech and the overall convention did for Kerry. As one Democratic strategist put it, last night was the one night in the campaign when some guy sitting in a bar in some Detroit suburb tells the bartender to turn down the game so he can hear the candidate talk. How did Kerry go over with that guy? Many pollsters agree that Kerry has cleared the public opinion hurdle of being seen as experienced enough to be president -- it's the rest of him that needs to be filled in for voters. Did the convention and his speech override a sense hammered in by Bush-Cheney ads and stump speeches that Kerry is inconsistent?

And now that the national security-dominated convention is over, how do progressives and anti-war activists feel -- are they unhappy with the relative dearth of red meat, or still so intent on beating Bush that neither Nader nor sitting out the election seem like appealing options?

Then there's the broader question of what the convention might do for the Democratic party. Did it bolster the credentials of a party that has traditionally lagged far behind the GOP on national security? A party which just seven months ago seemed likely to nominate a fiery anti-war activist? This was about as single-issue a convention as we could see, with little attention paid to Democratic staples like abortion and affirmative action. As another party strategist suggests, did the convention move Democrats out of that box for the media and for voters so that they are seen as able to be both pro-choice and strong on security?

In any case, congratulations to the Kerry team for pulling off a convention in which the only uncontrollable elements appeared to be Sharpton and the balloon drop. Having raised $5.7 million over the Internet in its final day of fundraising, the Democratic ticket kicked off its "Believe in America" cross-country bus tour with a rally in Boston earlier this morning. Later today, the tour hits Scranton, PA at 2:00 pm, and Harrisburg, PA at 8:00 pm.

The Bush campaign isn't waiting for Labor Day to kick off the fall campaign. Starting today, a Bush source says, the President spends the next four weeks rolling out a new stump speech and his vision for the next four years. The tour, called the "Heart and Soul of America Tour," will focus on ownership and giving people more control over things that matter to them: health care, retirement, paying taxes. Asked whether that means the government now has too much control over these things, the Bush aide said no, "people want more options." The Bush Administration has made "the right decisions on national security and the economy," and has laid out elements for long-term growth like trade and energy policy, the aide said. Now it's time to talk about taking things to the next level.

Noticeably not mentioned by the aide: Social Security.

President Bush makes remarks in Springfield, MO at 10:05 am, speaks at the Grand Rapids Community College in Grand Rapids, MI at 3:25 pm, addresses the Athletes of the International Children's Games and Cultural Festival in Cleveland, OH at 6:15 pm, and speaks at a Victory 2004 dinner at a private residence in Kirtland Hills, OH at 8:10 pm.

Vice President Cheney is also out campaigning today and tomorrow. Today, in Yakima, WA, he attends a rally at a high school at 5:15 pm, followed by a rally at the Jackson County Fairgrounds in Central Point, OR at 7:20 pm.

The speech
MSNBC's Becky Diamond, who has covered Kerry for almost a year and says he was strikingly personal and genuine last night, notes Kerry wore little makeup and sweated throughout the speech -- something she has never seen him do, even in the hottest of locations.

The Wall Street Journal says Kerry "took the fight straight to the two areas where President Bush has enjoyed his greatest political strengths: national security and social values... Republicans did their best to counter what they portrayed as the 'extreme makeover' of Mr. Kerry and the Democratic Party throughout the week. Immediately after Mr. Kerry finished his remarks, Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot issued a statement saying, 'It's disappointing that John Kerry's frank talk stopped with a discussion of his complexities and failed to include an explanation of his inconsistencies and contradictions on the central front in the war on terror.'"

The Washington Post's analysis: "There were notable omissions in Kerry's speech... that raise questions about the course he and his party have chosen... Like other speakers..., Kerry only briefly touched on Iraq, the issue that has shaped and dominated this presidential campaign, divided the Democratic Party and at times bedeviled his own candidacy. At a time when many Americans are looking for an exit strategy and may wonder whether Kerry has a plan for Iraq that is different from Bush's, he offered only the assurance that he knows how to get it right. Nor did Kerry or running mate John Edwards use their speeches this week to confront their opponents directly or persuasively argue the case for turning out the administration."

The Boston Globe: "though he treaded lightly over his 19-year record in the US Senate, Kerry drew a sharp contrast between his vision for the future and the policies of the incumbent Republican administration... How the speech resonates with voters may not be known for several days. But it was one of the most artfully crafted of Kerry's 18 months as a campaigner,... and he flashed the heartiest smile of his campaign when he formally accepted the party nomination at 10:20 p.m."

The Washington Times: "Democrats papered over a deep divide on the Iraq war, differences on homosexual 'marriage' and uncertainty about how to address international trade, all for the sake of the one thing that binds them: the chance to beat Mr. Bush."

The Boston Globe: "Lawmakers and delegates still lack common ground on such issues as the war and the role of government surveillance in countering would-be terrorists... Those differences, delegates and analysts say, are not likely to go away simply because the competing factions have identified a common enemy in Bush. But this week, Democrats... were overwhelmed with two powerful, unifying motivators -- anger at Bush and a heady sense that they just might be able to take back the White House in the fall."

nonamerasian
07-30-2004, 04:53 PM
I enjoyed the convention. Glad to hear Kerry's ideas.

...Although I would have liked to hear more on how he plans to implement those things.

Nevertheless, it boosted him in my mind.

nola
07-30-2004, 05:04 PM
He was more passionate than Clinton probably because of his Vietnam experience and his good friend dying.

DragonKnight
07-30-2004, 06:16 PM
When I first heard of Kerry he came off to me as someone boring and unpassionate. But then I began to take notice as he surged ahead and won the Democratic nomination. The support he recieved from the rest of the Democratic party and finally his speech pretty much sealed the deal.

Right now I am disgusted by the mishandling of the Iraq War and the extreme measures taken to counter terrorism. I personally see the current President of the United States and his administration at fault. Since he and his party can't seem to get the job done w/o violating human rights in foreign countries and stepping all over our constitutional rights here @ home, then I think its time for them to get the fuck out of the White House.

Yeahman
08-02-2004, 09:02 PM
Do conventions ever make much of a difference?

kitty
08-02-2004, 09:09 PM
historically, yes.

achtungbaby
08-03-2004, 12:55 PM
Do conventions ever make much of a difference?
Absolutely. In 1988 Michael Dukakis was actually leading then-Vice President George Bush by close to 10 points immediately following the DNC. Then the bottom was pulled out as the Bush campaign began running ads of Dukakis looking like a moron in the tank...and Bush's fantastic 1000 points of light acceptance speech...

I'm not exactly sure what to make of the bounce this year. Usually there is a noticeable one but it appears that unlike in other election years, voters may have apparently already made up their minds...

onnihs
08-03-2004, 02:15 PM
^ I agree. I think voters have already sided with their candidate. and the lack of boost? Possibly due to the 3% sampling error?

Yeahman
08-03-2004, 06:55 PM
Absolutely. In 1988 Michael Dukakis was actually leading then-Vice President George Bush by close to 10 points immediately following the DNC. Then the bottom was pulled out as the Bush campaign began running ads of Dukakis looking like a moron in the tank...and Bush's fantastic 1000 points of light acceptance speech...

I'm not exactly sure what to make of the bounce this year. Usually there is a noticeable one but it appears that unlike in other election years, voters may have apparently already made up their minds...
Like you said it was the tank ad in 1988 that killed Dukakis.
I don't think conventions make too much of a difference. A few points here and there.

Leviticus
08-04-2004, 01:18 AM
Just a reminder to you Americans. You’re not just voting in the next president. Your voting in the next most powerful man in the world. You Americans better know what you’re doing.

onnihs
08-05-2004, 02:29 AM
Just a reminder to you Americans. You’re not just voting in the next president. Your voting in the next most powerful man in the world. You Americans better know what you’re doing.

we try. or at least i think i know what i'm doing. our government doesn't like to tell us much, but still, we try.

Kuchana
08-05-2004, 01:00 PM
Just a reminder to you Americans. You’re not just voting in the next president. Your voting in the next most powerful man in the world. You Americans better know what you’re doing.

Please don't tell us what to do. We Americans are intelligent enough to know who we are going to vote for.

achtungbaby
08-05-2004, 01:02 PM
Please don't tell us what to do. We Americans are intelligent enough to know who we are going to vote for.
You tell 'em Kuchana!

(psst...vote Kerry!) :biggrin: